$216.06K
1
19
$216.06K
1
19
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between February 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market req
Prediction markets estimate there is a roughly 3 in 4 chance that Donald Trump will publicly say the phrase "Gulf of America" at some point in February 2026. This shows a high level of confidence among thousands of traders that the event is likely to occur. The market is essentially betting on a specific verbal habit, treating it as a predictable political behavior.
The high probability is based on two clear patterns. First, Donald Trump has a documented history of using this term. He has repeatedly referred to the Gulf of Mexico as the "Gulf of America" in speeches and social media posts over several years, framing it as a matter of national identity. Second, his communication style is consistent and repetitive with favored phrases. Traders are betting that a scheduled rally, interview, or spontaneous comment in February will naturally include this trademark terminology. The context does not suggest a major policy announcement, but rather a high probability of habitual language use during public appearances.
The entire month of February is the resolution window. Any public appearance, campaign rally, or posted video from Trump during this period could trigger the market's resolution. There is no single scheduled event driving the prediction. Instead, traders are monitoring his overall engagement calendar. A surge in public speaking events or media interviews as the month progresses would increase the opportunities for the phrase to be used. The market will close and resolve based on the first verified instance of him saying the words.
Markets tracking repetitive verbal behavior from known figures can be fairly reliable, as they forecast actions based on established patterns. However, this type of market has specific limitations. It is highly sensitive to the subject's changing schedule or potential illness that could limit public remarks. It also cannot account for an intentional, though unlikely, decision to avoid the phrase. While the collective bet seems strong, the outcome ultimately depends on a single moment in a single speech or comment, which always carries an element of unpredictability.
Prediction markets assign a 72% probability that Donald Trump will say "Gulf of America" during February 2026. This price indicates a strong consensus that the event is likely, though not a foregone conclusion. With $211,000 in total trading volume, the market has attracted moderate liquidity, suggesting informed traders are actively betting on this specific verbal outcome.
The high probability directly reflects Donald Trump's established rhetorical pattern. He has repeatedly used "Gulf of America" to refer to the Gulf of Mexico in past speeches and social media posts, framing the body of water with a nationalistic emphasis. This is not an isolated incident but a consistent verbal trademark. The market is effectively pricing in the continuation of this behavior, especially during a period, February 2026, when he is likely to be engaged in active campaigning or public commentary where geographical references are common. Traders are betting on habit over happenstance.
The primary risk to the current high-confidence bet is schedule. A notably quiet or apolitical month for Trump, perhaps due to a focused legal proceeding or limited public appearances, could reduce opportunities for the phrase to surface. Conversely, a major event centered on energy policy, Florida, or maritime trade in the Gulf region before or during February would act as a catalyst, potentially driving the probability even higher. The odds may see volatility in the final 48 hours before resolution as traders react to his last scheduled speeches or statements for the month.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on whether former President Donald Trump will mention a specific term during February 2026. The market resolves based on any public utterance, written statement, or social media post from Trump that includes the designated word or its variations within that calendar month. This type of market belongs to a category tracking the frequency and context of specific language in political discourse, particularly from influential figures whose statements can move markets, influence policy debates, and shape media cycles. The interest stems from Trump's unique communication style, which often drives news coverage and has tangible impacts on political campaigns, legal proceedings, and public opinion. Analysts and traders monitor these mentions as indicators of his strategic focus, potential policy priorities, or responses to current events. The specific term for February 2026 is not predetermined in this general description, but such markets typically track politically charged keywords like 'election,' 'fraud,' 'border,' or names of rivals and institutions. The resolution rules are precise, counting pluralizations, possessives, and compound words, which requires careful monitoring of all his communications across platforms like Truth Social, rally speeches, interviews, and court statements.
Markets predicting the content of political speech have existed for years, but gained prominence with the rise of Donald Trump's candidacy and presidency from 2015 onward. His unprecedented use of Twitter (now X) as a direct, unfiltered communication channel created a rich, public dataset of his priorities and grievances. During his presidency, researchers at institutions like the University of California, Irvine, and Factba.se began cataloging every word he uttered, enabling detailed analysis of term frequency. For example, in the month following the 2020 election, November 2020, Trump mentioned 'fraud' or 'rigged' over 150 times in public remarks and tweets, according to a Washington Post analysis. This established a clear precedent: specific political triggers, like electoral disputes or legal challenges, lead to predictable spikes in associated vocabulary. The January 6th committee hearings in 2022 similarly correlated with increased mentions of terms like 'committee' and 'witch hunt.' The creation of Truth Social in 2022 provided a new, dedicated platform for his commentary, with posts often focusing on a rotating set of themes including the 'border,' 'inflation,' and his legal cases. Historical data shows his mention patterns are not random; they are strategic tools for rallying his base, attacking opponents, and shifting media narratives.
The specific words a major political figure emphasizes can signal policy shifts, legal strategy, and campaign focus. For political operatives, journalists, and opponents, tracking these mentions provides early warning of upcoming initiatives or attacks. A surge in mentions of 'tariffs' could foreshadow an economic policy announcement. Repeated focus on a particular individual, like a prosecutor or judge, can be interpreted as an attempt to influence public opinion around a legal proceeding. Beyond politics, these mentions have financial implications. Trump's comments on specific companies have historically moved their stock prices. His statements on cryptocurrency or monetary policy can affect related markets. For the public and academia, analyzing this language offers insight into how populist leaders use repetition and simple framing to shape complex political debates, potentially affecting democratic discourse and social cohesion. The normalization of certain terms can alter their perceived legitimacy in public conversation.
As of late 2024, Donald Trump is the Republican nominee for the November 2024 presidential election. His public communication is dominated by campaign rhetoric, responses to his multiple ongoing legal cases, and commentary on the Biden administration. His primary platform remains Truth Social, where he posts daily. The political calendar for February 2026 is uncertain, but it will follow the first year of either a second Trump term or a new presidential term, which will heavily influence his speaking agenda. Key events like the State of the Union address (if he is president) or the start of primary season for the 2026 midterms (if he is not) could frame his public comments.
A mention is any instance where Donald Trump verbally says, writes, or posts the specific term. This includes speeches, interviews, social media posts on Truth Social or other platforms, and written statements. The rules typically count the word even if used in a compound word or as a possessive.
Resolution relies on official transcripts from reputable news services (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press), video/audio recordings from events, and direct archives of his social media posts. Markets often use a designated reporting source or a consensus of major media transcripts to avoid disputes.
Commonly tracked terms include politically central words like 'border,' 'inflation,' 'election,' 'fraud,' and names of political figures like 'Biden' or 'Harris.' Terms related to his legal cases, such as 'indictment' or specific prosecutor names, are also frequent market subjects.
Market rules vary. Some markets specify the mention must be in Trump's original text or spoken words. A simple retweet or share of another person's post containing the term may not count unless he explicitly adds the term in his accompanying comment. The specific market rules define this precisely.
Predictions are often accurate for terms tied to enduring themes (e.g., immigration) but less reliable for terms linked to unpredictable news events. His communication is highly reactive, so an unexpected legal ruling or news story can immediately inject new vocabulary into his remarks, changing probabilities rapidly.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
19 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will Trump say "Gulf of America" in February? | Poly | 66% |
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" in February? | Poly | 35% |
Will Trump say "Antifa" in February? | Poly | 32% |
Will Trump say "Atomic Energy Commission" in February? | Poly | 28% |
Will Trump say "Oblivion" in February? | Poly | 25% |
Will Trump say "Microcosm" in February? | Poly | 23% |
Will Trump say "Major Non-NATO Ally" in February? | Poly | 22% |
Will Trump say "Daddy" in February? | Poly | 22% |
Will Trump say "Nutjob" in February? | Poly | 20% |
Will Trump say "Deadlock" in February? | Poly | 20% |
Will Trump say "Kamikaze" in February? | Poly | 18% |
Will Trump say "Migrant Crime" in February? | Poly | 18% |
Will Trump say "Nine Wars" or "Ninth War" in February? | Poly | 16% |
Will Trump say "Statuary marble" in February? | Poly | 13% |
Will Trump say "Skedaddle" in February? | Poly | 12% |
Will Trump say "Knucklehead" or "Numskull" or "Numbskull" in February? | Poly | 11% |
Will Trump say "Penguin" in February? | Poly | 9% |
Will Trump say "Tariff King" in February? | Poly | 8% |
Will Trump say "N-Word" in February? | Poly | 3% |
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