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GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIClimate and Weather

Lowest temperature in New Orleans on Jul 9, 2026?

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Lowest temperature in New Orleans on Jul 9, 2026?

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6 markets tracked

Will the minimum temperature be 76-77° on Jul 9, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the minimum temperature be 76-77° on Jul 9, 2026?	Kalshi	89%
Will the minimum temperature be 74-75° on Jul 9, 2026?	Kalshi	11%
Will the minimum temperature be >79° on Jul 9, 2026?	Kalshi	1%
Will the minimum temperature be <72° on Jul 9, 2026?	Kalshi	1%
Will the minimum temperature be 78-79° on Jul 9, 2026?	Kalshi	1%
Will the minimum temperature be 72-73° on Jul 9, 2026?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

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89%

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About This Event

On Jul 9, 2026 If the minimum temperature recorded at New Orleans for Jul 9, 2026, is X than Y fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report, Daily, then the market resolves to Yes. Data for CLIMSY can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=lix, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "New Orleans, LA" with Daily Climate Report selected. Please use the latest version of the data for the desired d

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, August 24, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Lowest temperature in New Orleans on Jul 9, 2026?
**Category:** Climate and Weather | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Jul 9, 2026

If the minimum temperature recorded at New Orleans for Jul 9, 2026, is X than Y fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report, Daily, then the market resolves to Yes. Data for CLIMSY can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=lix, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "New Orleans, LA" with Daily Climate Report selected. Please use the latest version of the data for the desired d

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the minimum temperature recorded at New Orleans for Jul 9, 2026, is greater than 79° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Data for CLIMSY can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weat"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the minimum temperature be >79° on Jul 9, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 16, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the minimum temperature be <72° on Jul 9, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 16, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the minimum temperature be 78-79° on Jul 9, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 16, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the minimum temperature be 76-77° on Jul 9, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 16, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 88.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 11.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the minimum temperature be 74-75° on Jul 9, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 16, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the minimum temperature be 72-73° on Jul 9, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 16, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIClimate and Weather

Lowest temperature in New Orleans on Jul 9, 2026?

Volume$0.00

Markets6

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KALSHI

Will the minimum temperature be 76-77° on Jul 9, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 88.5¢No 11.5¢

KALSHIClimate

Will the minimum temperature be 76-77° on Jul 9, 2026?

If the minimum temperature recorded at New Orleans for Jul 9, 2026, is between 76-77° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Data for CLIMSY can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weathe

KALSHI

Will the minimum temperature be 74-75° on Jul 9, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 10.5¢No 89.5¢

KALSHIClimate

Will the minimum temperature be 74-75° on Jul 9, 2026?

If the minimum temperature recorded at New Orleans for Jul 9, 2026, is between 74-75° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Data for CLIMSY can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weathe

KALSHI

Will the minimum temperature be >79° on Jul 9, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIClimate

Will the minimum temperature be >79° on Jul 9, 2026?

If the minimum temperature recorded at New Orleans for Jul 9, 2026, is greater than 79° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Data for CLIMSY can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weat

KALSHI

Will the minimum temperature be <72° on Jul 9, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIClimate

Will the minimum temperature be <72° on Jul 9, 2026?

If the minimum temperature recorded at New Orleans for Jul 9, 2026, is less than 72° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Data for CLIMSY can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather

KALSHI

Will the minimum temperature be 78-79° on Jul 9, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIClimate

Will the minimum temperature be 78-79° on Jul 9, 2026?

If the minimum temperature recorded at New Orleans for Jul 9, 2026, is between 78-79° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Data for CLIMSY can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weathe

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Will the minimum temperature be 76-77° on Jul 9, 2026?

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Events (1)

Lowest temperature in New Orleans on Jul 9, 2026?

Markets (6)

Will the minimum temperature be 76-77° on Jul 9, 2026?

Will the minimum temperature be 76-77° on Jul 9, 2026?

Will the minimum temperature be 74-75° on Jul 9, 2026?

Will the minimum temperature be 74-75° on Jul 9, 2026?

Will the minimum temperature be >79° on Jul 9, 2026?

Will the minimum temperature be >79° on Jul 9, 2026?

Will the minimum temperature be <72° on Jul 9, 2026?

Will the minimum temperature be <72° on Jul 9, 2026?

Will the minimum temperature be 78-79° on Jul 9, 2026?

Will the minimum temperature be 78-79° on Jul 9, 2026?

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Will the minimum temperature be 76-77° on Jul 9, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Lowest temperature in New Orleans on Jul 9, 2026?

Will the minimum temperature be 76-77° on Jul 9, 2026?

Will the minimum temperature be 76-77° on Jul 9, 2026?

Will the minimum temperature be 74-75° on Jul 9, 2026?

Will the minimum temperature be 74-75° on Jul 9, 2026?

Will the minimum temperature be >79° on Jul 9, 2026?

Will the minimum temperature be >79° on Jul 9, 2026?

Will the minimum temperature be <72° on Jul 9, 2026?

Will the minimum temperature be <72° on Jul 9, 2026?

Will the minimum temperature be 78-79° on Jul 9, 2026?

Will the minimum temperature be 78-79° on Jul 9, 2026?

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