Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomy

Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...?

Name: Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...?
End: 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$6.82K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...?

Vol

$6.82K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $6.82K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $6.82K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will gas be below $3.75/gallon in any state on October 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will gas be below $3.75/gallon in any state on October 31?	Poly	36%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

36%

Top Probability

$6.82K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the average regular gas price for any US state is below $3.75 per gallon using unrounded figures. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source. This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this sourc

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...?
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 1, 2026 (21 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the average regular gas price for any US state is below $3.75 per gallon using unrounded figures. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source.

This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this sourc

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the average regular gas price for any US state is below $3.75 per gallon using unrounded figures. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data pr"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $251
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 15.38)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will gas be below $3.75/gallon in any state on October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $3.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 35.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETEconomy