Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 9:10 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHISports

NASCAR Freeway Insurance 500: Top 20 Finishers

Total Volume

$2.48K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

NASCAR Freeway Insurance 500: Top 20 Finishers

Vol

$2.48K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $2.48K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Price gaps

of 0 cross-platform

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.48K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

37 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Cup Series: Kyle Larson to finish in the top 20

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(37)

Market	Platform	Price
Cup Series: Kyle Larson to finish in the top 20	Kalshi	89%
Cup Series: Denny Hamlin to finish in the top 20	Kalshi	89%
Cup Series: Christopher Bell to finish in the top 20	Kalshi	86%
Cup Series: Ryan Blaney to finish in the top 20	Kalshi	84%
Cup Series: William Byron to finish in the top 20	Kalshi	80%
Cup Series: Joey Logano to finish in the top 20	Kalshi	78%
Cup Series: Tyler Reddick to finish in the top 20	Kalshi	75%
Cup Series: Chase Elliott to finish in the top 20	Kalshi	74%
Cup Series: Chase Briscoe to finish in the top 20	Kalshi	69%
Cup Series: Ty Gibbs to finish in the top 20	Kalshi	66%
Cup Series: Chris Buescher to finish in the top 20	Kalshi	65%
Cup Series: Carson Hocevar to finish in the top 20	Kalshi	64%
Cup Series: Ross Chastain to finish in the top 20	Kalshi	63%
Cup Series: Bubba Wallace to finish in the top 20	Kalshi	62%
Cup Series: Brad Keselowski to finish in the top 20	Kalshi	60%
Cup Series: Ryan Preece to finish in the top 20	Kalshi	56%
Cup Series: Alex Bowman to finish in the top 20	Kalshi	52%
Cup Series: Connor Zilisch to finish in the top 20	Kalshi	51%
Cup Series: Austin Cindric to finish in the top 20	Kalshi	50%
Cup Series: Corey Heim to finish in the top 20	Kalshi	47%
Cup Series: Josh Berry to finish in the top 20	Kalshi	46%
Cup Series: Erik Jones to finish in the top 20	Kalshi	43%
Cup Series: Daniel Suarez to finish in the top 20	Kalshi	43%
Cup Series: Shane van Gisbergen to finish in the top 20	Kalshi	41%
Cup Series: Michael McDowell to finish in the top 20	Kalshi	41%
Cup Series: Austin Dillon to finish in the top 20	Kalshi	41%
Cup Series: John Hunter Nemechek to finish in the top 20	Kalshi	39%
Cup Series: Zane Smith to finish in the top 20	Kalshi	38%
Cup Series: Todd Gilliland to finish in the top 20	Kalshi	38%
Cup Series: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. to finish in the top 20	Kalshi	38%
Cup Series: Noah Gragson to finish in the top 20	Kalshi	38%
Cup Series: AJ Allmendinger to finish in the top 20	Kalshi	37%
Cup Series: Cole Custer to finish in the top 20	Kalshi	35%
Cup Series: Austin Hill to finish in the top 20	Kalshi	35%
Cup Series: Riley Herbst to finish in the top 20	Kalshi	33%
Cup Series: Ty Dillon to finish in the top 20	Kalshi	31%
Cup Series: Cody Ware to finish in the top 20	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

89%

Top Probability

$2.48K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

2026 NASCAR Freeway Insurance 500 If X finishes in the top 20 in the main race originally scheduled for Oct 18, 2026 at the 2026 NASCAR Freeway Insurance 500 , then the market resolves to Yes. Important information: NASCAR races will be paid out after the final race results have been posted by NASCAR. Determinations are not based on provisional results, we appreciate your patience. X retires, is disqualified, or otherwise is not classified as a finisher in the race, the market for that competit

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** NASCAR Freeway Insurance 500: Top 20 Finishers
**Category:** Sports | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2026 NASCAR Freeway Insurance 500

If X finishes in the top 20 in the main race originally scheduled for Oct 18, 2026 at the 2026 NASCAR Freeway Insurance 500 , then the market resolves to Yes. Important information: NASCAR races will be paid out after the final race results have been posted by NASCAR. Determinations are not based on provisional results, we appreciate your patience. X retires, is disqualified, or otherwise is not classified as a finisher in the race, the market for that competit

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Zane Smith finishes in the top 20 in the main race originally scheduled for Oct 18, 2026 at the 2026 NASCAR Freeway Insurance 500 , then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Important information: NASCAR races will be paid out after the final race results have been posted by NASCAR. Deter"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Cup Series: Zane Smith to finish in the top 20
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 38.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Cup Series: William Byron to finish in the top 20
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 80.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Cup Series: Tyler Reddick to finish in the top 20
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 75.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 25.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Cup Series: Ty Gibbs to finish in the top 20
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 65.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 34.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Cup Series: Ty Dillon to finish in the top 20
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 31.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Cup Series: Todd Gilliland to finish in the top 20
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 38.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Cup Series: Shane van Gisbergen to finish in the top 20
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 41.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Cup Series: Ryan Preece to finish in the top 20
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 56.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 43.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Cup Series: Ryan Blaney to finish in the top 20
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 84.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 16.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Cup Series: Ross Chastain to finish in the top 20
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 63.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 37.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Cup Series: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. to finish in the top 20
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 38.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Cup Series: Riley Herbst to finish in the top 20
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 33.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Cup Series: Noah Gragson to finish in the top 20
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 38.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Cup Series: Michael McDowell to finish in the top 20
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 41.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Cup Series: Kyle Larson to finish in the top 20
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 88.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 11.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Cup Series: John Hunter Nemechek to finish in the top 20
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 39.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. Cup Series: Joey Logano to finish in the top 20
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 78.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 21.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Cup Series: Josh Berry to finish in the top 20
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 46.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.0% (0.0%)]

### 19. Cup Series: Erik Jones to finish in the top 20
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 43.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.0% (0.0%)]

### 20. Cup Series: Denny Hamlin to finish in the top 20
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 88.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 11.5% (0.0%)]

### 21. Cup Series: Daniel Suarez to finish in the top 20
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $2
  DATA: [Yes: 43.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.0% (0.0%)]

### 22. Cup Series: Connor Zilisch to finish in the top 20
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 23. Cup Series: Cody Ware to finish in the top 20
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 24. Cup Series: Corey Heim to finish in the top 20
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 47.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.0% (0.0%)]

### 25. Cup Series: Cole Custer to finish in the top 20
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 35.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.0% (0.0%)]

### 26. Cup Series: Chase Elliott to finish in the top 20
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 74.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 26.0% (0.0%)]

### 27. Cup Series: Chris Buescher to finish in the top 20
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 65.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 35.0% (0.0%)]

### 28. Cup Series: Chase Briscoe to finish in the top 20
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 69.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 31.0% (0.0%)]

### 29. Cup Series: Christopher Bell to finish in the top 20
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 85.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 14.5% (0.0%)]

### 30. Cup Series: Carson Hocevar to finish in the top 20
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 63.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 36.5% (0.0%)]

### 31. Cup Series: Bubba Wallace to finish in the top 20
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 61.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 38.5% (0.0%)]

### 32. Cup Series: Brad Keselowski to finish in the top 20
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 60.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 40.0% (0.0%)]

### 33. Cup Series: Austin Hill to finish in the top 20
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 35.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.0% (0.0%)]

### 34. Cup Series: Austin Dillon to finish in the top 20
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 41.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.0% (0.0%)]

### 35. Cup Series: Austin Cindric to finish in the top 20
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $3
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 36. Cup Series: Alex Bowman to finish in the top 20
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 52.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.0% (0.0%)]

### 37. Cup Series: AJ Allmendinger to finish in the top 20
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 37.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHISports

NASCAR Freeway Insurance 500: Top 20 Finishers

Volume$2.48K

Markets37

37 of 37

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KALSHI

Cup Series: Kyle Larson to finish in the top 20

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 88.5¢No 11.5¢

KALSHIOther

Cup Series: Kyle Larson to finish in the top 20

If Kyle Larson finishes in the top 20 in the main race originally scheduled for Oct 18, 2026 at the 2026 NASCAR Freeway Insurance 500 , then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Important information: NASCAR races will be paid out after the final race results have been posted by NASCAR. Dete

KALSHI

Cup Series: Denny Hamlin to finish in the top 20

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 88.5¢No 11.5¢

KALSHIOther

Cup Series: Denny Hamlin to finish in the top 20

If Denny Hamlin finishes in the top 20 in the main race originally scheduled for Oct 18, 2026 at the 2026 NASCAR Freeway Insurance 500 , then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Important information: NASCAR races will be paid out after the final race results have been posted by NASCAR. Det

KALSHI

Cup Series: Christopher Bell to finish in the top 20

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 85.5¢No 14.5¢

KALSHIOther

Cup Series: Christopher Bell to finish in the top 20

If Christopher Bell finishes in the top 20 in the main race originally scheduled for Oct 18, 2026 at the 2026 NASCAR Freeway Insurance 500 , then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Important information: NASCAR races will be paid out after the final race results have been posted by NASCAR.

KALSHI

Cup Series: Ryan Blaney to finish in the top 20

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 84.0¢No 16.0¢

KALSHIOther

Cup Series: Ryan Blaney to finish in the top 20

If Ryan Blaney finishes in the top 20 in the main race originally scheduled for Oct 18, 2026 at the 2026 NASCAR Freeway Insurance 500 , then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Important information: NASCAR races will be paid out after the final race results have been posted by NASCAR. Dete

KALSHI

Cup Series: William Byron to finish in the top 20

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 80.0¢No 20.0¢

KALSHIOther

Cup Series: William Byron to finish in the top 20

If William Byron finishes in the top 20 in the main race originally scheduled for Oct 18, 2026 at the 2026 NASCAR Freeway Insurance 500 , then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Important information: NASCAR races will be paid out after the final race results have been posted by NASCAR. De

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Oct 26, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC

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Price gaps of 2 pp+

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/zKxWHb" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="NASCAR Freeway Insurance 500: Top 20 Finishers"></iframe>

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NASCAR Freeway Insurance 500: Top 20 Finishers

NASCAR Freeway Insurance 500: Top 20 Finishers

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Cup Series: Kyle Larson to finish in the top 20

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Events (1)

NASCAR Freeway Insurance 500: Top 20 Finishers

Markets (37)

Cup Series: Kyle Larson to finish in the top 20

Cup Series: Kyle Larson to finish in the top 20

Cup Series: Denny Hamlin to finish in the top 20

Cup Series: Denny Hamlin to finish in the top 20

Cup Series: Christopher Bell to finish in the top 20

Cup Series: Christopher Bell to finish in the top 20

Cup Series: Ryan Blaney to finish in the top 20

Cup Series: Ryan Blaney to finish in the top 20

Cup Series: William Byron to finish in the top 20

Cup Series: William Byron to finish in the top 20

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Cup Series: Kyle Larson to finish in the top 20

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NASCAR Freeway Insurance 500: Top 20 Finishers

Cup Series: Kyle Larson to finish in the top 20

Cup Series: Kyle Larson to finish in the top 20

Cup Series: Denny Hamlin to finish in the top 20

Cup Series: Denny Hamlin to finish in the top 20

Cup Series: Christopher Bell to finish in the top 20

Cup Series: Christopher Bell to finish in the top 20

Cup Series: Ryan Blaney to finish in the top 20

Cup Series: Ryan Blaney to finish in the top 20

Cup Series: William Byron to finish in the top 20

Cup Series: William Byron to finish in the top 20

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