10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETScience

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Name: 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$555.20K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $555.20K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $555.20K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	Poly	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$555.20K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timefra

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, April 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
**Category:** Science | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (260 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timefra

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geol"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $555.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $31.3K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 17.75)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $555.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

259d 9h remaining

Dec 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

4¢

Polymarket

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/zPVY7c" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?"></iframe>

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Trade on Polymarket

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)