Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET
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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 31, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-30T21:00:05.889Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This contract is titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET" and is listed in the Crypto category on Polymarket [1]. According to the saved excerpt, it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1].
The resolution source is the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the excerpt states that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. Readers comparing this contract with other Bitcoin products should check whether they use the same source, window, and comparison rule. The listed end time is 2026-10-31T16:10:00.000Z [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-30T21:00:05.889Z and retrieved at 2026-10-31T02:54:03.293Z [1]. These are different times, and the observation time is the one that matters for the prices. At observation, the contract was active and showed Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. Because the snapshot is from October 30, it does not describe prices at the time of reading.
The sample covers one market from one platform, and the coverage record marks it as complete for this saved event [1]. No other outcomes or platforms are available for comparison, so this snapshot cannot support a cross-platform or cross-contract ranking.
These figures are snapshot prices. They are not executable quotes and not verified probabilities. The evidence does not include volume, liquidity, or trader counts, so it says nothing about how deep the market is or how many participants hold each side.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show the Bitcoin price at the start of the window, the TWAP during the window, or the final result. It also does not show prices after the observation time. The excerpt states that the provider status was active at the time of the saved record [1], but it does not establish the current status.
The evidence does not explain why prices stood where they did, and this note does not infer a cause. Readers should check the live contract and its listed end time before relying on any figure.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-30T21:00:05.889Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 31, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-term Polymarket contract titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:05PM to 12:10PM ET." The contract belongs to the crypto category and asks whether Bitcoin's price will move up or down over a five-minute window on October 31. Its rules state that the market "will resolve to 'Up' if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to 'Down'" [1]. The measurement is therefore not a simple comparison of a spot price at two moments. It compares the average price across the window with the price at the window's start. A market can resolve Up even if Bitcoin ends the window below where it began, provided the time-weighted average over the window is at or above the starting price. Because the rules refer to a time-weighted average, the outcome depends on how the price is distributed through the five minutes, not only on the final reading [1]. The resolution source is named in the rules as "information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream" [1]. The rules also say the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. Prices or trades on other exchanges therefore do not determine the result under these rules, even if they look similar. The saved provider record lists the event as active, with a listed end time of 2026-10-31T16:10:00Z [1]. That end time is a date recorded in the contract rules and data, not a separately announced event. The saved market snapshot, observed at 2026-10-30T21:00:05Z, showed the Up outcome at 0.505 and the Down outcome at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot values from the observation time. They are not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities or as the price at any later time.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of Bitcoin's price over one short, fixed window, as reported by a single named data stream. Because the test is whether the time-weighted average over the window is at or above the starting price, it isolates the average price path rather than a single closing value [1]. Its narrow scope, which names Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP data stream and excludes other sources and spot markets, means the outcome depends on that one feed [1]. Readers should check the resolution wording before interpreting any price shown for the contract, since the saved prices reflect only the snapshot time.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-30 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What makes this contract resolve to Up?
The contract resolves to Up if the time-weighted average price of Bitcoin over the stated five-minute window is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that window, according to the Chainlink data stream [1].
Which price source decides the result?
The rules specify Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP data stream and state that other sources or spot markets are not used [1].
Does a higher price on this contract mean the outcome is more likely?
The saved snapshot shows the Up outcome at 0.505 and the Down outcome at 0.495 at the observation time [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, so they do not establish how likely either result is.
When does the listed window close?
The window is described as 12:05PM to 12:10PM ET on October 31, and the listed end time in the provider data is 2026-10-31T16:10:00Z [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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