Market snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsFinancials

How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 16, 2026?

Name: How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 16, 2026?
End: 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$39.77K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 16, 2026?

Vol

$39.77K

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $28.63K

Kalshi

markets · $11.14K

Price Spread

20.9%avg

max 29.0%

Price gaps

of 5 cross-platform

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Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $39.77K

72%

28%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

23 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Related contracts

The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.31% by Oct 16, 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-10-18T05:05:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.32% in October?"; listed deadline 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Reviewed: Tue, 13 Oct 2026 22:19:56 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 5 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 16, 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-10-18T05:05:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in October?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.32% in October?

Price difference

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(5)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.32% in October?DIFF Related contracts	40%	46%	6%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.35% in October?DIFF Related contracts	33%	49%	16%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.38% in October?DIFF Related contracts	21%	46%	26%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.41% in October?DIFF Related contracts	18%	46%	29%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.45% in October?DIFF Related contracts	14%	44%	29%

Single-Platform Markets(18)

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

56%

Top Probability

$39.77K

Volume

Markets

25.1%

Price Gap

About This Event

By Oct 16, 2026 If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above X on any business day between Oct 9, 2026 and Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 9, 2026 and Oct 16, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, October 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 16, 2026?
**Category:** Financials | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** By Oct 16, 2026

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above X on any business day between Oct 9, 2026 and Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 9, 2026 and Oct 16, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.31% on any business day between Oct 9, 2026 and Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 9, 2026 and Oct 16, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $39.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.7K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 14.43)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (8 mkts) vs Kalshi (20 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.31% by Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 46.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.0% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $4.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 40.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.7% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 5.7% spread between platforms.

### 2. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.34% by Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $669
  DATA: [Yes: 49.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.0% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $3.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 33.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.0% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 16.0% spread between platforms.

### 3. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.37% by Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $287
  DATA: [Yes: 46.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.0% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $4.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 25.5% spread between platforms.

### 4. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.40% by Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $270
  DATA: [Yes: 46.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.0% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $4.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 28.5% spread between platforms.

### 5. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.44% by Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $710
  DATA: [Yes: 43.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.5% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 29.0% spread between platforms.

### 6. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.43% by Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $354
  DATA: [Yes: 46.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.42% by Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $474
  DATA: [Yes: 46.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.41% by Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $372
  DATA: [Yes: 46.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.39% by Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $760
  DATA: [Yes: 49.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.38% by Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $792
  DATA: [Yes: 46.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.36% by Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $804
  DATA: [Yes: 39.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.35% by Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $689
  DATA: [Yes: 46.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.33% by Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $658
  DATA: [Yes: 46.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.32% by Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $633
  DATA: [Yes: 45.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.30% by Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $899
  DATA: [Yes: 47.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.29% by Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $483
  DATA: [Yes: 46.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.28% by Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $241
  DATA: [Yes: 46.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.27% by Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $523
  DATA: [Yes: 47.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.0% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.26% by Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $276
  DATA: [Yes: 48.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.5% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.25% by Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $240
  DATA: [Yes: 56.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 44.0% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.50% in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $3.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 31.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.0% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.55% in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.60% in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $4.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
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- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Rules & Resolution

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Saved matching review

Related contracts: 5 pairs

A saved event match does not establish identical settlement. Pair reviews appear with each price comparison.

Review notes

Saved notes may describe earlier contract terms. Use the pair status above and current provider rules.

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

KALSHIFinancials

How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 16, 2026?

Volume$11.14K

Markets20

POLYMARKETEconomy

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in October?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by Novemb

Volume$28.63K

Markets8

23 of 23

Sort:

KALSHI

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.25% by Oct 16, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 56.0¢No 44.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

CLOSING SOON

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.25% by Oct 16, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.25% on any business day between Oct 9, 2026 and Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 9, 2026 and Oct 16, 2026. Resolution is based solely on

KALSHI

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.39% by Oct 16, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 49.0¢No 51.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

CLOSING SOON

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.39% by Oct 16, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.39% on any business day between Oct 9, 2026 and Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 9, 2026 and Oct 16, 2026. Resolution is based solely on

KALSHI

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.26% by Oct 16, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 48.5¢No 51.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

CLOSING SOON

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.26% by Oct 16, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.26% on any business day between Oct 9, 2026 and Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 9, 2026 and Oct 16, 2026. Resolution is based solely on

KALSHI

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.30% by Oct 16, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 47.0¢No 53.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

CLOSING SOON

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.30% by Oct 16, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.30% on any business day between Oct 9, 2026 and Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 9, 2026 and Oct 16, 2026. Resolution is based solely on

KALSHI

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.27% by Oct 16, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 47.0¢No 53.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

CLOSING SOON

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.27% by Oct 16, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.27% on any business day between Oct 9, 2026 and Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 9, 2026 and Oct 16, 2026. Resolution is based solely on

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Oct 18, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC

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Price gaps of 2 pp+

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Largest saved gap: 29.0 percentage points.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 16, 2026?