Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

GOP Black vote share?

Name: GOP Black vote share?
End: 2026-11-07T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$3.42K

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GOP Black vote share?

Vol

$3.42K

Events

Markets

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $3.42K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $3.42K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will Republicans win 10–11% of the Black vote?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Republicans win 10–11% of the Black vote?	Poly	28%
Will Republicans win 8–9% of the Black vote?	Poly	24%
Will Republicans win 12–13% of the Black vote?	Poly	19%
Will Republicans win less than 8% of the Black vote?	Poly	8%
Will Republicans win 16–17% of the Black vote?	Poly	7%
Will Republicans win 18% or more of the Black vote?	Poly	6%
Will Republicans win 14–15% of the Black vote?	Poly	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

28%

Top Probability

$3.42K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN. This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026. For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synon

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** GOP Black vote share?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 7, 2026 (26 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.

This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.

For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synon

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.

This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $82.1K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.04)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Republicans win less than 8% of the Black vote?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $140
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Republicans win 8–9% of the Black vote?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Republicans win 10–11% of the Black vote?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 28.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Republicans win 12–13% of the Black vote?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $538
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Republicans win 14–15% of the Black vote?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $320
  DATA: [Yes: 5.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.8% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Republicans win 16–17% of the Black vote?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $59
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Republicans win 18% or more of the Black vote?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $205
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics