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| Market | Platform | Price |
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| Poly | 26% |
$36.37K
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses or suggests María Corina Machado as Venezuelan state leader or president by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Donald Trump announces that he would prefer or endorses another individual, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting
Prediction markets currently assign a low probability to this event, with Polymarket pricing a "Yes" outcome at 31%. This price indicates the market sees a Trump endorsement of María Corina Machado as unlikely, though not impossible. With only $36,000 in total volume, liquidity is thin, suggesting this is a speculative niche market rather than one with a strong consensus.
The primary factor suppressing the odds is the significant uncertainty surrounding both key figures by the end of 2026. First, Donald Trump's own political status and policy focus, should he win the 2024 U.S. election, are unpredictable. While he took a hardline stance against the Maduro regime during his first term, his specific endorsement of an opposition candidate would be an unusually granular foreign policy move. Second, María Corina Machado's ability to actually be a presidential candidate remains in severe doubt. Despite winning the Venezuelan opposition's 2023 primary, she is currently banned from holding public office by the Maduro government. The market is effectively pricing in the substantial hurdle of her political disqualification being lifted, which is not guaranteed.
The odds could see volatility tied to two major catalysts. The first is the outcome of the November 2024 U.S. presidential election. A Trump victory would immediately make this scenario more plausible, likely causing the "Yes" share price to rise. The second is any official change in Machado's eligibility status within Venezuela. If, during 2025 or 2026, the Maduro government or Venezuelan courts unexpectedly reverse her ban, it would transform her into a viable contender and increase the strategic value of a potential Trump endorsement. Conversely, if Trump loses in 2024 or publicly endorses a different Venezuelan opposition figure, this market would rapidly resolve to "No."
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market addresses whether former U.S. President Donald Trump will endorse Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado for the Venezuelan presidency by the end of 2026. The question sits at the intersection of U.S. foreign policy, Venezuelan domestic politics, and the personal political calculations of a leading U.S. presidential candidate. It reflects the significant influence that U.S. political figures, particularly Trump, can wield over political dynamics in Latin America, especially regarding a country like Venezuela that has been a focal point of geopolitical tension. The market's resolution depends on a clear, public statement of endorsement from Trump or his official representatives, making it a test of both political alignment and diplomatic signaling. Interest in this topic stems from the 2024 U.S. presidential election, where Trump is the Republican nominee, and the ongoing crisis in Venezuela, where Machado remains the most prominent opposition figure despite being barred from holding office by the Maduro government. Observers are watching to see if a potential second Trump administration would dramatically shift U.S. policy from the current Biden approach, which involved easing some oil sanctions in exchange for electoral concessions, toward a more confrontational stance explicitly backing regime change through Machado.
U.S. involvement in Venezuelan politics intensified under the administration of Hugo Chávez (1999-2013), who positioned himself as a socialist counterweight to American influence. Relations deteriorated further under his successor, Nicolás Maduro. A pivotal moment came on January 23, 2019, when opposition leader Juan Guaidó declared himself interim president, citing Maduro's 2018 re-election as illegitimate. Within days, the Trump administration, along with dozens of other countries, recognized Guaidó. The U.S. imposed crippling sanctions on Venezuela's state oil company PDVSA and later enacted a 'maximum pressure' campaign targeting Maduro and his associates. This period established a clear template for Trump's policy, direct endorsement of a specific opposition figure as the legitimate leader. The Biden administration initially continued recognition of Guaidó but shifted strategy in 2023. Following negotiations in Barbados, the U.S. provided temporary sanctions relief in exchange for Maduro's agreement to allow international observers and establish a process for candidate reinstatement. This deal collapsed in early 2024 when Venezuela's Supreme Court, loyal to Maduro, reaffirmed the ban on Machado. The historical arc shows a oscillation between hardline endorsement (Trump) and conditional engagement (Biden), setting the stage for a potential return to the former approach.
The question of a Trump endorsement matters because it would signal a fundamental shift in U.S. strategy with profound regional consequences. An endorsement would likely be accompanied by a re-tightening of the maximum pressure sanctions regime, impacting global oil markets and the fragile Venezuelan economy, which has begun a slight recovery under temporary U.S. licenses. It would also test the unity of the Venezuelan opposition, potentially forcing other factions to rally behind Machado or risk being sidelined by Washington. For the Venezuelan people, a strong U.S. endorsement could galvanize anti-Maduro sentiment but also risk provoking a harsh government crackdown and further political instability. Beyond Venezuela, such a move would resonate across Latin America, where many governments are wary of overt U.S. interventionism. It would be interpreted as a return to a Monroe Doctrine-style foreign policy, influencing diplomatic relations with Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico. Domestically in the U.S., it would become a flashpoint in debates over the appropriate use of American power and the ethics of endorsing a candidate barred by her own country's courts.
As of mid-2024, the political landscape is in flux. The Biden administration has reinstated sanctions on Venezuela's oil sector after the Maduro government failed to meet its Barbados Agreement commitments, particularly regarding Machado's disqualification. The Venezuelan presidential election is scheduled for July 28, 2024, with Machado barred from running. Her coalition has named a substitute candidate, Edmundo González Urrutia. Donald Trump is actively campaigning for the U.S. presidential election in November 2024. He has not made any specific public statements endorsing Machado, though he has criticized Maduro in the past. The immediate focus is on the July Venezuelan election and the November U.S. election, with the possibility of a Trump endorsement for the 2026 Venezuelan cycle contingent on the outcomes of both.
No. As of 2024, Venezuela's Supreme Justice Tribunal, which is aligned with President Maduro, has upheld a 15-year administrative ban prohibiting Machado from holding public office. The ban, originally issued in 2015, was reaffirmed in 2023 and early 2024, effectively barring her from being a candidate in the July 2024 presidential election.
President Trump pursued a 'maximum pressure' campaign against the Maduro regime. This included recognizing opposition leader Juan Guaidó as the legitimate interim president in January 2019, imposing severe sanctions on Venezuela's state oil company PDVSA and government officials, and reportedly entertaining discussions about military intervention. His policy was one of the most confrontational approaches by any U.S. administration toward Caracas.
Signed in October 2023 between representatives of Maduro's government and the Venezuelan opposition, the Barbados Agreement committed to electoral guarantees for the 2024 presidential vote, including the presence of international observers and a process to review disqualified candidates. In exchange, the U.S. temporarily eased key oil and gas sanctions. The deal broke down when Venezuela's high court upheld the ban on Machado in January 2024.
The United States, under the Biden administration, no longer recognizes Juan Guaidó as interim president. In late 2022 and early 2023, the U.S. shifted its policy, effectively ending its recognition of the Guaidó government in favor of engaging directly with the Maduro administration to negotiate the Barbados Agreement. The U.S. now engages with Maduro as the de facto authority while supporting a democratic solution.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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