Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 12:27 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Texas Governor Election Winner

Name: Texas Governor Election Winner
End: 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$527.23K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Texas Governor Election Winner

Vol

$527.23K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $527.23K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Price gaps

of 0 cross-platform

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $527.23K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Poly	80%
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Poly	21%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

80%

Top Probability

$527.23K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the p

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Texas Governor Election Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 4, 2026 (22 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the p

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian,"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $527.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $246.1K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.14)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $228.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $299.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 79.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics