NC-12 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $14.4K
1
10
NC-12 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $14.4K
1
10
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Democrat 55-60% at 31.4%.
Polymarket
- Democrat 55-60%31.4%
- Democrat 50-55%24.8%
- Democrat 45-50%10.8%
- Democrat 25-35%9.8%
- Democrat 60-65%5.3%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $14.4K
Reported volume · provider units
10
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 NC-12 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NC-12 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The snapshot covers one Polymarket event, "NC-12 House Election Margin of Victory," with ten contracts [1]. The contract defines margin of victory as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Most contracts ask whether the Democratic candidate wins by a given bracket, such as "55%-60%" or "65% or more." One contract asks whether the Republican candidate wins the election [1].
The rules include several details that affect how a contract resolves. A value that "falls exactly between two brackets" resolves to "the higher margin bracket" [1]. Independent candidates do not count as options for either party [1]. The market resolves on "the official vote count once the count has been made official," and if results are not known definitively by "June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET," it resolves to "Other" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z for every contract in the sample [1].
Reading the snapshot
The observation time is 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-16T03:18:11.946Z [1]. These prices describe that moment only. They are not live quotes and should not be read as executable prices or verified probabilities.
The Yes prices for the Democratic bracket contracts are: 55%-60% at 0.318, 50%-55% at 0.287, 45%-50% at 0.1095, 60%-65% at 0.104, 40%-45% at 0.0665, 65% or more at 0.05, 35%-40% at 0.0495, 25%-35% at 0.0465, and 0%-25% at 0.026 [1]. The Republican win contract shows Yes at 0.0015 [1].
These contracts are not all priced on one exhaustive probability scale, so the Yes prices should not be summed or averaged into a single estimate. Taken together, the ten Yes prices in this snapshot total about 1.06. The source does not explain that total, and it should not be treated as an arbitrage signal, since snapshot prices are not executable and the contracts' terms differ.
What remains uncertain
The sample is complete for this provider event. The coverage record reports 10 total markets, 10 included, and no partial sample [1]. The source also states that the sample "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. A low price on one bracket therefore says nothing about any outcome that is not listed.
The evidence does not explain why any price is where it is, how many traders hold each position, or how liquid the markets are. The excerpt gives no volume or trader data. The source states the election is "currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026," but it provides no certified results, and the snapshot cannot indicate how the contracts will resolve [1].
References
- Polymarket: NC-12 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 16, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
The NC-12 House Election Margin of Victory contract on Polymarket concerns the 2026 U.S. House election in North Carolina's 12th congressional district. Its rules state that the 2026 NC-12 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. The Wikipedia article on the 2026 North Carolina House elections likewise says the elections will be held on that date to elect the state's 14 U.S. representatives, one from each congressional district [2]. The contract's listed end time is November 4, 2026 at 04:59 UTC [1]. That is a provider deadline, not a record that the election has been decided. The contract resolves according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates. The margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes won by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is calculated by dividing a candidate's valid votes by the total valid votes cast in the election [1]. Votes for independent candidates do not count as options for either party. The Democratic and Republican options refer to the candidates nominated by those parties [1]. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the contract name is updated and the market resolves on the replacement nominee [1]. The contract is divided into margin brackets. If a reported margin falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher bracket [1]. A separate winner market asks whether the Republican Party candidate wins the election [1]. Tie-breaking rules apply when two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes. In those cases the contract uses the ballot-listed last name of the listed candidate in alphabetical order, or resolves to "Other" when the tie is only among unlisted candidates [1]. The primary resolution source is the official result of the 2026 NC-12 House election as certified by the state electoral authority. Credible reporting showing an overwhelming consensus may also be used [1]. The contract resolves only after the official vote count is made official. If a recount begins before the total is official, the market stays open until the recount is complete [1]. If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the contract resolves to "Other" [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures how wide the winning margin will be in one congressional race, not simply which party wins. Because the margin is defined by the gap between the top two candidates' shares of valid votes, the bracket structure divides possible outcomes by percentage points of separation [1]. The election itself is part of a statewide slate of U.S. House races in North Carolina that will coincide with Senate and other state and local elections [2]. Traders therefore follow the official certified count and the contract's specific definitions, which can differ from informal descriptions of a close or lopsided race.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-16 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the contract count as the margin of victory?
The margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates, with each percentage calculated from the total valid votes cast in the election [1].
How are Democratic and Republican candidates identified?
Candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican Parties represent the Democrat and Republican options. Independent candidates do not represent either option [1].
What happens if a margin lands exactly between two brackets?
The market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1].
When does the contract resolve?
It resolves based on the official vote count once that count is made official. If a recount is started before the total is official, the market remains open until the recount finishes and the vote is official [1]. If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
What source determines the result?
The primary source is the official 2026 NC-12 House election result published by the state electoral authority that certifies results. Overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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