Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Which states will Democrats win a trifecta in 2026?

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$9.34K

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Which states will Democrats win a trifecta in 2026?

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$9.34K

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $9.34K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $9.34K

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Democratic trifecta in Minnesota?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Democratic trifecta in Minnesota?	Kalshi	85%
Democratic trifecta in Michigan?	Kalshi	77%
Democratic trifecta in Oregon?	Kalshi	73%
Democratic trifecta in Arizona?	Kalshi	68%
Democratic trifecta in Wisconsin?	Kalshi	63%
Democratic trifecta in Pennsylvania?	Kalshi	59%
Democratic trifecta in Nevada?	Kalshi	50%
Democratic trifecta in Vermont?	Kalshi	26%

AI Analysis

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85%

Top Probability

$9.34K

Volume

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About This Event

On Nov 3, 2026 If ALL of the Democratic candidate X win their respective elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Each state market requires the Democratic candidate to win the 2026 election for Governor and the Democratic Party to win the most seats in both chambers of that state's legislature. Each chamber is decided by its full membership after the November 3, 2026 general election, including members whose seats were not on the 2026 ballot. This market is eligible for accelerated determin

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which states will Democrats win a trifecta in 2026?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Nov 3, 2026

If ALL of the Democratic candidate X win their respective elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Each state market requires the Democratic candidate to win the 2026 election for Governor and the Democratic Party to win the most seats in both chambers of that state's legislature. Each chamber is decided by its full membership after the November 3, 2026 general election, including members whose seats were not on the 2026 ballot. This market is eligible for accelerated determin

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If ALL of the Democratic candidate for Governor of Vermont, the Democratic Party in the Vermont Senate, and the Democratic Party in the Vermont House of Representatives win their respective elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each state market requires the Democratic candida"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $9.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Democratic trifecta in Vermont?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 25.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Democratic trifecta in Oregon?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 72.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 27.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Democratic trifecta in Wisconsin?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 62.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 37.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Democratic trifecta in Pennsylvania?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $793
  DATA: [Yes: 59.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 41.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Democratic trifecta in Nevada?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $419
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Democratic trifecta in Minnesota?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $3.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 84.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 15.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Democratic trifecta in Michigan?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 77.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 23.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Democratic trifecta in Arizona?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $3.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 67.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 32.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Which states will Democrats win a trifecta in 2026?

Volume$9.34K

Markets8

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KALSHI

Democratic trifecta in Minnesota?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 84.5¢No 15.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Democratic trifecta in Minnesota?

If ALL of the Democratic candidate for Governor of Minnesota, the Democratic Party in the Minnesota Senate, and the Democratic Party in the Minnesota House of Representatives win their respective elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each state market requires the Democratic c

KALSHI

Democratic trifecta in Michigan?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 77.0¢No 23.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Democratic trifecta in Michigan?

If ALL of the Democratic candidate for Governor of Michigan, the Democratic Party in the Michigan Senate, and the Democratic Party in the Michigan House of Representatives win their respective elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each state market requires the Democratic cand

KALSHI

Democratic trifecta in Oregon?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 72.5¢No 27.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Democratic trifecta in Oregon?

If ALL of the Democratic candidate for Governor of Oregon, the Democratic Party in the Oregon Senate, and the Democratic Party in the Oregon House of Representatives win their respective elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each state market requires the Democratic candidate

KALSHI

Democratic trifecta in Arizona?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 67.5¢No 32.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Democratic trifecta in Arizona?

If ALL of the Democratic candidate for Governor of Arizona, the Democratic Party in the Arizona State Senate, and the Democratic Party in the Arizona House of Representatives win their respective elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each state market requires the Democratic c

KALSHI

Democratic trifecta in Wisconsin?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 62.5¢No 37.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Democratic trifecta in Wisconsin?

If ALL of the Democratic candidate for Governor of Wisconsin, the Democratic Party in the Wisconsin State Senate, and the Democratic Party in the Wisconsin State Assembly win their respective elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each state market requires the Democratic candi

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Which states will Democrats win a trifecta in 2026?

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Democratic trifecta in Minnesota?

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About This Event

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Events (1)

Which states will Democrats win a trifecta in 2026?

Markets (8)

Democratic trifecta in Minnesota?

Democratic trifecta in Minnesota?

Democratic trifecta in Michigan?

Democratic trifecta in Michigan?

Democratic trifecta in Oregon?

Democratic trifecta in Oregon?

Democratic trifecta in Arizona?

Democratic trifecta in Arizona?

Democratic trifecta in Wisconsin?

Democratic trifecta in Wisconsin?

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Democratic trifecta in Minnesota?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Which states will Democrats win a trifecta in 2026?

Democratic trifecta in Minnesota?

Democratic trifecta in Minnesota?

Democratic trifecta in Michigan?

Democratic trifecta in Michigan?

Democratic trifecta in Oregon?

Democratic trifecta in Oregon?

Democratic trifecta in Arizona?

Democratic trifecta in Arizona?

Democratic trifecta in Wisconsin?

Democratic trifecta in Wisconsin?

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