Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETScience

Measles cases in U.S. by October 31?

Name: Measles cases in U.S. by October 31?
End: 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$13.35K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Measles cases in U.S. by October 31?

Vol

$13.35K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $13.35K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $13.35K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will there be at least 4100 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will there be at least 4100 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?	Poly	100%
Will there be at least 4200 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?	Poly	100%
Will there be at least 4300 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?	Poly	97%
Will there be at least 4500 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?	Poly	89%
Will there be at least 4700 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?	Poly	55%
Will there be at least 4800 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?	Poly	25%
Will there be at least 4900 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?	Poly	6%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

100%

Top Probability

$13.35K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counte

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Measles cases in U.S. by October 31?
**Category:** Science | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 1, 2026 (21 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counte

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $10.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $5.7K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.81)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will there be at least 4100 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $196
  DATA: [Yes: 99.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.4% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will there be at least 4200 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.4% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will there be at least 4300 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $976
  DATA: [Yes: 97.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will there be at least 4700 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 55.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 45.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will there be at least 4500 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 89.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 11.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will there be at least 4800 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will there be at least 4900 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETScience