GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Name: Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
End: 2026-10-01T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$134.54K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Vol

$134.54K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $134.54K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $134.54K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by September 30, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by September 30, 2026?	Poly	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$134.54K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island. "No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying fo

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 1, 2026 (26 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.

"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying fo

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $81.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $73.4K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.11)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by September 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $81.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics