Will Trump reduce the deficit before 2027? | PredictPedia

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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomy

Will Trump reduce the deficit before 2027?

Name: Will Trump reduce the deficit before 2027?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$23.30

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Markets

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Will Trump reduce the deficit before 2027?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $23.30

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $23.30

100%

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1 market tracked

Will Trump reduce the deficit before 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Trump reduce the deficit before 2027?	Poly	29%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

29%

Top Probability

$23.30

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Trump reduce the deficit before 2027? 
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (349 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS)"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $23
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.1K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.02)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Trump reduce the deficit before 2027? 
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $23
  DATA: [Yes: 29.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

348d 12h remaining

Dec 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

29¢

Polymarket

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/zckiR4" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will Trump reduce the deficit before 2027? "></iframe>

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Will Trump reduce the deficit before 2027?

Will Trump reduce the deficit before 2027?

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Will Trump reduce the deficit before 2027?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)