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GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

How many dissenting votes at the July Fed meeting?

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How many dissenting votes at the July Fed meeting?

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How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? (0)

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Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? (0)	Kalshi	51%
How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? (1)	Kalshi	25%
How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? (2)	Kalshi	12%
How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? (3)	Kalshi	9%
How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? (4)	Kalshi	7%

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About This Event

July 2026 If there are exactly X dissenting votes at the next scheduled FOMC meeting, scheduled for Jul 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, August 24, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many dissenting votes at the July Fed meeting?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** July 2026

If there are exactly X dissenting votes at the next scheduled FOMC meeting, scheduled for Jul 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If there are exactly 4 dissenting votes at the next scheduled FOMC meeting (scheduled for Jul 29, 2026), then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? (4)
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 5, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? (3)
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 5, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? (2)
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 5, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? (1)
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 5, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 25.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? (0)
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 5, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

How many dissenting votes at the July Fed meeting?

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KALSHI

How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? (0)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 50.5¢No 49.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? (0)

If there are exactly 0 dissenting votes at the next scheduled FOMC meeting (scheduled for Jul 29, 2026), then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? (1)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 25.0¢No 75.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? (1)

If there are exactly 1 dissenting votes at the next scheduled FOMC meeting (scheduled for Jul 29, 2026), then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? (2)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.5¢No 88.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? (2)

If there are exactly 2 dissenting votes at the next scheduled FOMC meeting (scheduled for Jul 29, 2026), then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? (3)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 8.5¢No 91.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? (3)

If there are exactly 3 dissenting votes at the next scheduled FOMC meeting (scheduled for Jul 29, 2026), then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? (4)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.5¢No 93.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? (4)

If there are exactly 4 dissenting votes at the next scheduled FOMC meeting (scheduled for Jul 29, 2026), then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

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How many dissenting votes at the July Fed meeting?

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How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? (0)

How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? (0)

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How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? (1)

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How many dissenting votes at the July Fed meeting?

How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? (0)

How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? (0)

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