$4.68K
1
7
$4.68K
1
7
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for February 12, 2026, 7:00 AM. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleas
Prediction markets currently show a fragmented outlook for UK GDP growth in Q4 2025. The leading contract on Polymarket, asking if growth will be between 1.0% and 1.5% year-on-year, is trading at 47%. This price indicates the market sees this specific range as the most likely single outcome, but still assigns it less than a coin-flip probability. Significant liquidity is spread across adjacent brackets, with meaningful probability assigned to both lower (0.5% to 1.0%) and higher (1.5% to 2.0%) growth ranges. The thin overall volume of $3,000 suggests this is a preliminary consensus, highly sensitive to new economic data.
The current pricing reflects a cautious baseline expectation for modest economic expansion. First, the Bank of England's monetary policy path is a primary driver. Markets are pricing in a gradual easing cycle through 2025, which should provide a tailwind to growth, but the lingering effects of previous tightening are expected to cap the recovery's speed. Second, the global economic environment, particularly demand from key trading partners in the EU and the US, is forecast to be subdued, limiting export-led growth. Finally, domestic productivity and labor market trends have shown persistent weakness, leading forecasters to project a trend growth rate near 1% absent a significant positive shock.
The odds will be highly volatile in response to incoming macroeconomic data over the next 28 days before resolution. Key indicators include the monthly GDP releases for November and December 2025, scheduled for January 10 and February 11, 2026, respectively. A consistent upside surprise in these reports could rapidly shift probability toward the 1.5% to 2.0% bracket. Conversely, weaker-than-expected retail sales or a deterioration in business sentiment surveys would increase the likelihood of sub-1.0% growth. The final market move will likely come from the official ONS release on February 12, 2026, where any deviation from the Office for Budget Responsibility's (OBR) forecast, typically published in the Autumn Statement, will determine the resolution.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the United Kingdom's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2025, measured as a percentage change compared to the same quarter in 2024. The outcome will be determined by the official 'GDP First quarterly estimate, UK' published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on February 12, 2026. This release provides the earliest comprehensive snapshot of economic performance for that period, encompassing output from all sectors including services, production, and construction. The figure represents a crucial barometer of the UK's economic health, indicating whether the economy is expanding, contracting, or stagnating as it concludes the 2025 calendar year. Interest in this specific metric is high among economists, policymakers, investors, and businesses as it serves as a key input for monetary policy decisions by the Bank of England, influences government fiscal planning, and affects market sentiment toward UK assets. The Q4 2025 data will be particularly scrutinized as it follows several years of economic volatility post-pandemic and during a period of persistent inflationary pressures and higher interest rates. Analysts will examine whether growth momentum has been sustained, slowed, or reversed, providing critical insight into the longer-term economic trajectory.
UK GDP growth has exhibited significant volatility in recent years, providing critical context for interpreting the Q4 2025 figure. The economy contracted sharply during the COVID-19 pandemic, with GDP falling by 9.7 percent in 2020, the largest annual decline in three centuries. This was followed by a strong rebound of 7.6 percent growth in 2021. However, the recovery was hampered by the inflationary shock following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which led to a surge in energy prices. The Bank of England responded by raising interest rates aggressively from a historic low of 0.1 percent in December 2021 to 5.25 percent by August 2023, the highest level in 15 years. This tightening cycle aimed to curb inflation but also slowed economic activity. The UK economy entered a technical recession in the second half of 2023, with GDP contracting in both Q3 and Q4. Growth returned in early 2024 but remained subdued. The historical precedent shows that Q4 GDP figures often reflect broader annual trends and are sensitive to consumer spending during the holiday period, business investment decisions before year-end, and global economic conditions.
The Q4 2025 GDP growth rate matters because it is a primary indicator of national economic well-being, directly impacting living standards, employment prospects, and government finances. Sustained growth increases tax revenues, allowing for greater public spending on services like healthcare and education without increasing debt, while contraction forces difficult fiscal choices. For millions of individuals, the growth rate correlates with wage growth, job security, and the cost of borrowing for mortgages and loans. A stronger-than-expected figure could boost business confidence and investment, while a weaker one could lead to hiring freezes or layoffs. Politically, the data arrives early in the electoral cycle following the July 2024 general election, serving as a key report card on the new government's economic management. It will influence political narratives and public sentiment. Financially, it affects the value of the British pound, UK government bond (gilt) yields, and the FTSE stock index, with global implications for trade and investment flows.
As of late 2024, the UK economy is emerging from a period of stagnation and mild recession. The Bank of England has held interest rates steady at 5.25 percent since August 2023 while monitoring inflationary pressures. Headline inflation has fallen significantly from its peak but remains above the 2 percent target. The latest ONS data shows modest quarterly growth in the first half of 2024. The government's fiscal plans and the Bank's forward guidance on rates will be the primary domestic drivers shaping economic conditions through 2025. Global economic trends, particularly in major trading partners like the European Union and the United States, will also be significant external factors influencing the UK's Q4 2025 performance.
Quarterly GDP growth measures the change in economic output from one quarter to the next (e.g., Q3 to Q4), often expressed as a percentage and annualized. The metric in this market is the annual growth rate, which compares the GDP of a specific quarter (Q4 2025) to the GDP of the same quarter in the previous year (Q4 2024), providing a cleaner comparison by removing seasonal effects.
The ONS's first quarterly estimate is based on approximately 85 percent of the data that will eventually be available. It is therefore subject to revision in subsequent publications as more complete data is collected. Significant revisions, though uncommon, can occur, which is a known risk factor in markets based on this initial release.
UK GDP is measured through three approaches: output (the value of goods and services produced), income (wages and profits generated), and expenditure (spending by consumers, government, and businesses, plus net exports). The expenditure approach breaks down into household consumption, government spending, business investment, and net trade (exports minus imports).
Strong GDP growth can signal rising inflationary pressures, potentially prompting the Bank of England to raise or maintain high interest rates to cool the economy. Conversely, weak growth may create room for the Bank to cut rates to stimulate activity. The MPC balances growth data against its inflation target when making rate decisions.
The Office for National Statistics maintains a comprehensive and publicly accessible database called the ONS Data Explorer. All historical GDP estimates, including revisions, are published there. The Bank of England's Statistical Interactive Database also provides long-run economic time series.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 70% |
| Poly | 17% |
| Poly | 5% |
| Poly | 3% |
| Poly | 3% |
| Poly | 2% |
| Poly | 1% |
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