Name: Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in February
End: 2026-02-03T00:00:00.000Z

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Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in February | PredictPedia

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3 markets tracked

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the February Meeting?

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Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the February Meeting?	Poly	87%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the February Meeting?	Poly	13%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia decrease the target for the cash rate after the February Meeting?	Poly	1%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in February
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Feb 3, 2026 (19 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s February meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its February 3, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html

This market may 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s February meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Ba"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $64.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $10.9K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 5.91)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Reserve Bank of Australia decrease the target for the cash rate after the February Meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 3, 2026): Vol $29.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the February Meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 3, 2026): Vol $14.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the February Meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 3, 2026): Vol $20.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 86.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 13.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

18d 15h remaining

Feb 03, 2026 12:00 AM

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33¢

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Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the February Meeting?

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Events (1)

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in February

Markets (3)

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the February Meeting?

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the February Meeting?

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the February Meeting?

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the February Meeting?

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia decrease the target for the cash rate after the February Meeting?

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia decrease the target for the cash rate after the February Meeting?

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Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the February Meeting?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in February

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the February Meeting?

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the February Meeting?

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the February Meeting?

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the February Meeting?

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia decrease the target for the cash rate after the February Meeting?

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia decrease the target for the cash rate after the February Meeting?

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