This prediction market topic addresses whether former President Donald Trump will implement a policy making in vitro fertilization (IVF) free for at least one cycle before the end of his potential presidential term on January 20, 2029. IVF is an assisted reproductive technology where eggs are fertilized by sperm outside the body, with resulting embryos transferred to a uterus. The procedure is a primary treatment for infertility but carries significant financial costs, typically ranging from $12,000 to $25,000 per cycle in the United States, often not covered by insurance. The market resolves to 'Yes' if, before the end of his term, President Trump takes an action that eliminates the cost of at least one IVF cycle, such as through federal legislation, an executive order, or a regulatory mandate. The topic sits at the intersection of healthcare policy, reproductive rights, and political economics. Interest in this market surged following the Alabama Supreme Court's February 2024 ruling that frozen embryos are considered children under state law, which temporarily halted IVF services and ignited a national debate about reproductive technology access. Proponents of free IVF argue it addresses declining birth rates and supports family building, while critics question the fiscal responsibility and potential federal overreach. The topic is politically charged, as Trump and the Republican Party have navigated complex positions on reproductive issues post the Dobbs v. Jackson decision.

Historical Context

The political and policy landscape for IVF in the United States has evolved significantly since the first successful U.S. IVF birth in 1981. For decades, federal policy largely avoided the issue, leaving regulation to states and coverage to private insurers. A major shift occurred with the passage of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) in 2010, which allowed states to define infertility as an essential health benefit, paving the way for state-level insurance mandates. As of 2024, 21 states and Washington D.C. have laws requiring some level of insurance coverage for infertility diagnosis and treatment, though the scope and requirements for IVF coverage vary widely. At the federal level, IVF has been entangled in debates over embryonic research. From 1996 to 2015, the Dickey-Wicker Amendment annually prohibited federal funding for the creation of human embryos for research purposes or for research in which embryos are destroyed, which indirectly affected certain IVF-related research. The modern political flashpoint arrived with the Supreme Court's Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision in June 2022, which overturned Roe v. Wade and returned abortion regulation to the states. This decision triggered a re-examination of all laws pertaining to embryos and fetuses, culminating in the Alabama Supreme Court's LePage v. Center for Reproductive Medicine ruling in February 2024, which declared frozen embryos were children under the state's Wrongful Death of a Minor Act. This ruling created immediate legal uncertainty for IVF clinics and patients, forcing a national political reckoning on IVF access.

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