Which Senators will vote for the next Fed Chair nominee? | PredictPedia

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13 markets tracked

Will Tim Scott vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

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Single-Platform Markets(13)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Tim Scott vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?	Kalshi	93%
Will Kevin Cramer vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?	Kalshi	91%
Will John Kennedy vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?	Kalshi	87%
Will Thom Tillis vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?	Kalshi	87%
Will Susan Collins vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?	Kalshi	83%
Will Mitch McConnell vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?	Kalshi	80%
Will Lisa Murkowski vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?	Kalshi	77%
Will John Fetterman vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?	Kalshi	72%
Will Jeanne Shaheen vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?	Kalshi	48%
Will Rand Paul vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?	Kalshi	47%
Will Maggie Hassan vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?	Kalshi	46%
Will John Hickenlooper vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?	Kalshi	43%
Will Ruben Gallego vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?	Kalshi	8%

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**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, March 2, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which Senators will vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before 2027

If X votes Yea for the next Fed Chair nominee before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, or should a withdrawal of the nominee's nomination be formally communicated to the United States Senate, this market shall resolve to No. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a ta

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Kevin Cramer votes Yea for the next Fed Chair nominee before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, or should a withdrawal of the nominee's "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $46.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Kevin Cramer vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $5.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 91.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 9.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will John Kennedy vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 86.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 13.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Tim Scott vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $4.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 92.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 7.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Thom Tillis vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 86.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 13.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Susan Collins vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $637
  DATA: [Yes: 83.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 17.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Rand Paul vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $12.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 47.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Ruben Gallego vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $302
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Mitch McConnell vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $3.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 79.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Maggie Hassan vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 45.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Lisa Murkowski vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $7.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 77.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 23.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Jeanne Shaheen vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 47.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will John Hickenlooper vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 43.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will John Fetterman vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $3.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 71.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 28.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Which Senators will vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

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Will Tim Scott vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Which Senators will vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

Markets (13)

Will Tim Scott vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

Will Tim Scott vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

Will Kevin Cramer vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

Will Kevin Cramer vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

Will John Kennedy vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

Will John Kennedy vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

Will Thom Tillis vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

Will Thom Tillis vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

Will Susan Collins vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

Will Susan Collins vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

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Will Tim Scott vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Which Senators will vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

Will Tim Scott vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

Will Tim Scott vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

Will Kevin Cramer vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

Will Kevin Cramer vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

Will John Kennedy vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

Will John Kennedy vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

Will Thom Tillis vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

Will Thom Tillis vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

Will Susan Collins vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

Will Susan Collins vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

Related News & Context

Discussion

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