Name: Which parties will lose seats in Japanese snap election?
End: 2026-02-08T00:00:00.000Z

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Which parties will lose seats in Japanese snap election? | PredictPedia

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9 markets tracked

Will Reiwa Shinsengumi loose any seats in Japanese snap election?

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Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Reiwa Shinsengumi loose any seats in Japanese snap election?	Poly	99%
Will the Japanese Communist Party loose any seats in Japanese snap election?	Poly	97%
Will the Conservative Party of Japan loose any seats in Japanese snap election?	Poly	96%
Will the Japan Innovation Party loose any seats in Japanese snap election?	Poly	3%
Will the Democratic Party for the People loose any seats in Japanese snap election?	Poly	2%
Will the Social Democratic Party loose any seats in Japanese snap election?	Poly	1%
Will Team Mirai loose any seats in Japanese snap election?	Poly	1%
Will Sanseitō loose any seats in Japanese snap election?	Poly	1%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party loose any seats in Japanese snap election?	Poly	0%

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, February 22, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which parties will lose seats in Japanese snap election?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Feb 8, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** General elections are scheduled to be held in Japan on February 8, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party loses at least 1 seat in the Japanese House of Representatives (衆議院, Shūgiin) as a result of the next Japanese general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For purposes of resolution, a party’s seat count will be compared to the number of seats that party held immediately prior to the dissolution of the House of Representatives for the 2026 Japanese s

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"General elections are scheduled to be held in Japan on February 8, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party loses at least 1 seat in the Japanese House of Representatives (衆議院, Shūgiin) as a result of the next Japanese general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No""

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $103.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $42.2K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.46)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Liberal Democratic Party loose any seats in Japanese snap election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 8, 2026): Vol $24.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Japan Innovation Party loose any seats in Japanese snap election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 8, 2026): Vol $3.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Democratic Party for the People loose any seats in Japanese snap election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 8, 2026): Vol $5.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Sanseitō loose any seats in Japanese snap election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 8, 2026): Vol $3.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Reiwa Shinsengumi loose any seats in Japanese snap election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 8, 2026): Vol $5.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.7% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the Japanese Communist Party loose any seats in Japanese snap election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 8, 2026): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 97.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.6% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the Conservative Party of Japan loose any seats in Japanese snap election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 8, 2026): Vol $17.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 96.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.9% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the Social Democratic Party loose any seats in Japanese snap election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 8, 2026): Vol $23.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Team Mirai loose any seats in Japanese snap election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 8, 2026): Vol $15.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Which parties will lose seats in Japanese snap election?

Which parties will lose seats in Japanese snap election?

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Will Reiwa Shinsengumi loose any seats in Japanese snap election?

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Events (1)

Which parties will lose seats in Japanese snap election?

Markets (9)

Will Reiwa Shinsengumi loose any seats in Japanese snap election?

Will Reiwa Shinsengumi loose any seats in Japanese snap election?

Will the Japanese Communist Party loose any seats in Japanese snap election?

Will the Japanese Communist Party loose any seats in Japanese snap election?

Will the Conservative Party of Japan loose any seats in Japanese snap election?

Will the Conservative Party of Japan loose any seats in Japanese snap election?

Will the Japan Innovation Party loose any seats in Japanese snap election?

Will the Japan Innovation Party loose any seats in Japanese snap election?

Will the Democratic Party for the People loose any seats in Japanese snap election?

Will the Democratic Party for the People loose any seats in Japanese snap election?

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Will Reiwa Shinsengumi loose any seats in Japanese snap election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Which parties will lose seats in Japanese snap election?

Will Reiwa Shinsengumi loose any seats in Japanese snap election?

Will Reiwa Shinsengumi loose any seats in Japanese snap election?

Will the Japanese Communist Party loose any seats in Japanese snap election?

Will the Japanese Communist Party loose any seats in Japanese snap election?

Will the Conservative Party of Japan loose any seats in Japanese snap election?

Will the Conservative Party of Japan loose any seats in Japanese snap election?

Will the Japan Innovation Party loose any seats in Japanese snap election?

Will the Japan Innovation Party loose any seats in Japanese snap election?

Will the Democratic Party for the People loose any seats in Japanese snap election?

Will the Democratic Party for the People loose any seats in Japanese snap election?

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