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Will the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff in the state of Minas Gerais be at least 4%?

Yes 85.0%

Vol1.7K contracts

SnapshotOct 23, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC

Yes 85.0%

TradeTrade on Kalshi

Event

MarketKALSHIactive

MarketKALSHIactivePolitics

Will the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff in the state of Minas Gerais be at least 4%?

Part of: Minas Gerais: Flávio Bolsonaro margin of victory (runoff)

YesYes Price

85.0¢

VolTotal Volume

1.7K contracts

Outcomes

Ends

Oct 25, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC

Trade on Kalshi

Will the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff in the state of Minas Gerais be at least 4%?

Yes

85.0¢

Vol

1.7K contracts

Outcomes

Trade

Yes85.0¢

No15.0¢

Outcome

Yes quoted price: 85.0%. Snapshot Oct 23, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. History may have a different observation time.

Price History

Will the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff in the state of Minas Gerais be at least 4%? · Yes

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Rules and settlement

Listed close: Oct 25, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC. Settlement follows the provider's contract terms and may occur later.

If the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff in the state of Minas Gerais is at or above 4%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the share of valid votes cast in the state of Minas Gerais (excluding blank and null votes) received by Flávio Bolsonaro minus the share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Flávio Bolsonaro if Flávio Bolsonaro wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Flávio Bolsonaro loses. If Flávio Bolsonaro wins, the margin will be positive; if Flávio Bolsonaro loses, the margin will be negative; if Flávio Bolsonaro ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Flávio Bolsonaro runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

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Resolution Info