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Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 4 percentage points?

Yes 97.0%

Vol2.6K contracts

SnapshotOct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC

Yes 97.0%

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Event

MarketKALSHIactive

MarketKALSHIactivePolitics

Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 4 percentage points?

Part of: 2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory

YesYes Price

97.0¢

VolTotal Volume

2.6K contracts

Outcomes

Ends

Feb 3, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC

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Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 4 percentage points?

Yes

97.0¢

Vol

2.6K contracts

Outcomes

Trade

Yes97.0¢

No3.0¢

Outcome

Yes quoted price: 97.0%. Snapshot Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC. History may have a different observation time.

Price History

Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 4 percentage points? · Yes

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Rules and settlement

Listed close: Feb 3, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC. Settlement follows the provider's contract terms and may occur later.

If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 4 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election. The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote.

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Resolution Info