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Will the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate be at least 5 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Yes 95.5%

Vol0 contracts

SnapshotOct 19, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC

Yes 95.5%

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Event

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MarketKALSHIactivePolitics

Will the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate be at least 5 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Part of: Reddest House district to elect a Democrat in 2026?

YesYes Price

95.5¢

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Ends

Mar 15, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC

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Will the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate be at least 5 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Yes

95.5¢

Vol

0 contracts

Outcomes

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Yes95.5¢

No4.5¢

Outcome

Yes quoted price: 95.5%. Snapshot Oct 19, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC. History may have a different observation time.

Price History

Will the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate be at least 5 at the November 3, 2026 general election? · Yes

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Rules and settlement

Listed close: Mar 15, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC. Settlement follows the provider's contract terms and may occur later.

If the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate is at least 5 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A district's 2024 margin is Donald Trump's share of the 2024 presidential vote in that district minus Kamala Harris's share, as calculated by The Downballot in its 2024 presidential results by congressional district table, for the district boundaries in use at the 2026 elections, as shown in the table to one decimal place (the table lists Democratic minus Republican, so reverse its sign). Those margins are fixed as of Issuance and identified by state and district number, so later boundary changes and revisions to the table do NOT change them. The margin is negative where Harris won. A district counts only if the candidate elected there at the November 3, 2026 general election, for the term beginning January 3, 2027, is listed on the ballot as a Democrat (including Minnesota's Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party), including as preferring the Democratic Party where a state uses an open, top-two or top-four ballot. If a runoff is required to determine the winner of any race, the runoff result governs. Independent and third-party winners do NOT count, even if they caucus with Democrats.

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