Market snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

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Reddest House district to elect a Democrat in 2026?

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Reddest House district to elect a Democrat in 2026?

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Will the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate be at least 5 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

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Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate be at least 5 at the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	95.5%
Will the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate be at least 10 at the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	94.5%
Will the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate be at least 15 at the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	93.5%
Will the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate be at least 20 at the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	63.5%
Will the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate be at least 25 at the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	8.0%
Will the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate be at least 30 at the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	5.0%

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Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC

About This Event

November 3, 2026 If the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate is at least X at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. X district's 2024 margin is Donald Trump's share of the 2024 presidential vote in that district minus Kamala Harris's share, as calculated by The Downballot in its 2024 presidential results by congressional district table, for the district boundaries in use at the 2026 elections, as shown in the table to one decimal place, the table lists Democratic minus Republican, so reverse its sign. Those margins are fixed as of Issuance and identified by state and district number, so later boundary changes and revisions to the table do NOT change them. The margin is negative where Harris won. X district counts only if the candidate elected there at the November 3, 2026 general election, for the term beginning January 3, 2027, is listed on the ballot as a Democrat, including Minnesota's Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, including as preferring the Democratic Party where a state uses an open, top-two or top-four ballot. If a runoff is required to determine the winner of any race, the runoff result governs. Independent and third-party winners do NOT count, even if they caucus with Democrats.

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Event: Reddest House district to elect a Democrat in 2026?
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): K 0 contracts
Coverage: 6 of 6 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: Will the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate be at least 5 at the November 3, 2026 general election?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXREDDESTDHOUSE-26NOV03-AL5; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxreddestdhouse-26nov03
Observed: Oct 19, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Mar 15, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 95.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 4.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): If the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate is at least 5 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A district's 2024 margin is Donald Trump's share of the 2024 presidential vote in that district minus Kamala Harris's share, as calculated by The Downballot in its 2024 presidential results by congressional district table, for the district boundaries in use at the 2026 elections, as shown in the table to one decimal place (the table lists Democratic minus Republican, so reverse its sign). Those margins are fixed as of Issuance and identified by state and district number, so later boundary changes and revisions to the table do NOT change them. The margin is negative where Harris won.

A district counts only if the candidate elected there at the November 3, 2026 general election, for the term beginning January 3, 2027, is listed on the ballot as a Democrat (including Minnesota's Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party), including as preferring the Democratic Party where a state uses an open, top-two or top-four ballot. If a runoff is required to determi

Contract: Will the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate be at least 30 at the November 3, 2026 general election?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXREDDESTDHOUSE-26NOV03-AL30; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxreddestdhouse-26nov03
Observed: Oct 19, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Mar 15, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 5.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 95.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): If the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate is at least 30 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A district's 2024 margin is Donald Trump's share of the 2024 presidential vote in that district minus Kamala Harris's share, as calculated by The Downballot in its 2024 presidential results by congressional district table, for the district boundaries in use at the 2026 elections, as shown in the table to one decimal place (the table lists Democratic minus Republican, so reverse its sign). Those margins are fixed as of Issuance and identified by state and district number, so later boundary changes and revisions to the table do NOT change them. The margin is negative where Harris won.

A district counts only if the candidate elected there at the November 3, 2026 general election, for the term beginning January 3, 2027, is listed on the ballot as a Democrat (including Minnesota's Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party), including as preferring the Democratic Party where a state uses an open, top-two or top-four ballot. If a runoff is required to determ

Contract: Will the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate be at least 25 at the November 3, 2026 general election?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXREDDESTDHOUSE-26NOV03-AL25; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxreddestdhouse-26nov03
Observed: Oct 19, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Mar 15, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 8.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 92.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): If the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate is at least 25 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A district's 2024 margin is Donald Trump's share of the 2024 presidential vote in that district minus Kamala Harris's share, as calculated by The Downballot in its 2024 presidential results by congressional district table, for the district boundaries in use at the 2026 elections, as shown in the table to one decimal place (the table lists Democratic minus Republican, so reverse its sign). Those margins are fixed as of Issuance and identified by state and district number, so later boundary changes and revisions to the table do NOT change them. The margin is negative where Harris won.

A district counts only if the candidate elected there at the November 3, 2026 general election, for the term beginning January 3, 2027, is listed on the ballot as a Democrat (including Minnesota's Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party), including as preferring the Democratic Party where a state uses an open, top-two or top-four ballot. If a runoff is required to determ

Contract: Will the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate be at least 20 at the November 3, 2026 general election?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXREDDESTDHOUSE-26NOV03-AL20; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxreddestdhouse-26nov03
Observed: Oct 19, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Mar 15, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 63.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 36.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): If the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate is at least 20 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A district's 2024 margin is Donald Trump's share of the 2024 presidential vote in that district minus Kamala Harris's share, as calculated by The Downballot in its 2024 presidential results by congressional district table, for the district boundaries in use at the 2026 elections, as shown in the table to one decimal place (the table lists Democratic minus Republican, so reverse its sign). Those margins are fixed as of Issuance and identified by state and district number, so later boundary changes and revisions to the table do NOT change them. The margin is negative where Harris won.

A district counts only if the candidate elected there at the November 3, 2026 general election, for the term beginning January 3, 2027, is listed on the ballot as a Democrat (including Minnesota's Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party), including as preferring the Democratic Party where a state uses an open, top-two or top-four ballot. If a runoff is required to determ

Contract: Will the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate be at least 15 at the November 3, 2026 general election?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXREDDESTDHOUSE-26NOV03-AL15; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxreddestdhouse-26nov03
Observed: Oct 19, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Mar 15, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 93.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 6.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): If the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate is at least 15 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A district's 2024 margin is Donald Trump's share of the 2024 presidential vote in that district minus Kamala Harris's share, as calculated by The Downballot in its 2024 presidential results by congressional district table, for the district boundaries in use at the 2026 elections, as shown in the table to one decimal place (the table lists Democratic minus Republican, so reverse its sign). Those margins are fixed as of Issuance and identified by state and district number, so later boundary changes and revisions to the table do NOT change them. The margin is negative where Harris won.

A district counts only if the candidate elected there at the November 3, 2026 general election, for the term beginning January 3, 2027, is listed on the ballot as a Democrat (including Minnesota's Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party), including as preferring the Democratic Party where a state uses an open, top-two or top-four ballot. If a runoff is required to determ

Contract: Will the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate be at least 10 at the November 3, 2026 general election?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXREDDESTDHOUSE-26NOV03-AL10; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxreddestdhouse-26nov03
Observed: Oct 19, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Mar 15, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 94.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 5.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): If the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate is at least 10 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A district's 2024 margin is Donald Trump's share of the 2024 presidential vote in that district minus Kamala Harris's share, as calculated by The Downballot in its 2024 presidential results by congressional district table, for the district boundaries in use at the 2026 elections, as shown in the table to one decimal place (the table lists Democratic minus Republican, so reverse its sign). Those margins are fixed as of Issuance and identified by state and district number, so later boundary changes and revisions to the table do NOT change them. The margin is negative where Harris won.

A district counts only if the candidate elected there at the November 3, 2026 general election, for the term beginning January 3, 2027, is listed on the ballot as a Democrat (including Minnesota's Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party), including as preferring the Democratic Party where a state uses an open, top-two or top-four ballot. If a runoff is required to determ

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KALSHIElections

Reddest House district to elect a Democrat in 2026?

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Will the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate be at least 5 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

kalshi

Will the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate be at least 5 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Yes: 95.5¢
No: 4.5¢

Will the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate be at least 10 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

kalshi

Will the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate be at least 10 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Yes: 94.5¢
No: 5.5¢

Will the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate be at least 15 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

kalshi

Will the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate be at least 15 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Yes: 93.5¢
No: 6.5¢

Will the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate be at least 20 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

kalshi

Will the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate be at least 20 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Yes: 63.5¢
No: 36.5¢

Will the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate be at least 25 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

kalshi

Will the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate be at least 25 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Yes: 8.0¢
No: 92.0¢

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

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Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

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Will the Republican Party win the NY-22 House seat?

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Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NY-22 House election?

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Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

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Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IL-17 House election?

Kalshi: Will a Republican win the House race for IL-17?

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PM Yes 2.9%Rules differK Yes 3.8%

Will the Republican Party win the IL-17 House seat?

Kalshi: Will a Republican win the House race for IL-17?

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PM Yes 3.4%Rules differK Yes 3.8%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

3 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 4, 2026 UTC

PolymarketKalshiPolitics

CA-49 House Election Margin of Victory

PM $30.3K · K 15.9K contracts

Will the Democratic Party win the CA-49 House seat?

Kalshi: Will a Democrat win the House race for CA-49?

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PM Yes 96%Rules differK Yes 96.1%

Will a Republican Party candidate win the 2026 CA-49 House election?

Kalshi: Will a Republican win the House race for CA-49?

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PM Yes 35.2%Rules differK Yes 2.5%

Will the Republican Party win the CA-49 House seat?

Kalshi: Will a Republican win the House race for CA-49?

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PM Yes 3.5%Rules differK Yes 2.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

3 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 3, 2026 UTC

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+3 moreNext deadline Nov 3, 2027 UTC

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Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026?

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Will Texas be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?Yes 28%

Will Kansas be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?Yes 24.5%

Will North Carolina be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?Yes 13%

+13 moreNext deadline Apr 3, 2027 UTC

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