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Will it be confirmed that Raphael Warnock publicly backs Chris Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him?

Yes 43.0%

Vol200 contracts

SnapshotNov 15, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC

Yes 43.0%

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Will it be confirmed that Raphael Warnock publicly backs Chris Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him?

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Will it be confirmed that Raphael Warnock publicly backs Chris Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him?

Part of: Which senators will back Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader?

YesYes Price

43.0¢

|

VolTotal Volume

200 contracts

|

Outcomes

2

Ends

Jan 10, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC

Jan 10, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC

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Will it be confirmed that Raphael Warnock publicly backs Chris Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him?

Will it be confirmed that Raphael Warnock publicly backs Chris Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him?

Yes

43.0¢

|

Vol

200 contracts

|

Outcomes

2

Yes43.0¢

No57.0¢

Outcome

Yes quoted price: 43.0%. Snapshot Nov 15, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC. History may have a different observation time.

Price History

Will it be confirmed that Raphael Warnock publicly backs Chris Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him? · Yes

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Resolution Info

Market details

Status: active
Listed close: Jan 10, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Created: Not provided
Reported volume: 200 contracts
Price snapshot: Nov 15, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC

The listed close is not a settlement guarantee. Check the provider for current prices before trading.

Which senators will back Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader?

Which senators will back Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader?

Rules and settlement

Listed close: Jan 10, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC. Settlement follows the provider's contract terms and may occur later.

If Raphael Warnock publicly backs Chris Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency. "The caucus vote" refers to the Senate Democratic caucus's vote on its leader for the 120th Congress. A senator backs Chris Van Hollen by publicly stating that they support him or plan to vote for him as leader. Support conditioned only on Chris Van Hollen remaining a candidate qualifies; support subject to any other condition does not. The market resolves to Yes if either of the following is confirmed: Backing Chris Van Hollen is the senator's public position when the caucus votes. By the end of the day after the vote, the senator says they voted for Chris Van Hollen, including saying "aye" on a voice vote. A senator's own account of their vote governs over earlier statements. A senator who says they voted against Chris Van Hollen, abstained, or did not vote for him resolves to No. A senator who had not publicly backed Chris Van Hollen before the vote resolves to No if, by the end of the day after the vote, they only say they support him going forward or decline to say whether they supported him. If Chris Van Hollen is elected by acclamation without a vote, only the first route applies. Once the day after the caucus elects its leader has ended, a senator who has met neither route above resolves to No, without waiting for Jan 3, 2027. A route met by then still counts if a Source Agency confirms it before the market settles. Each market resolves to No if Chris Van Hollen withdraws from the leadership election or the caucus does not elect its leader before Jan 3, 2027. A person who is not eligible to vote in the caucus vote as a senator or senator-elect, including a candidate whose Senate race has not been called by then, resolves to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. It will also close early once the day after the Senate Democratic caucus elects its leader for the 120th Congress has ended.

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