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Will the US cut the 50% aluminum tariff on Canada before Jan 1, 2027?

Yes1%

Vol$0.00

Outcomes2

1%

TradeTrade on Kalshi

MarketKALSHIactive

Will the US cut the 50% aluminum tariff on Canada before Jan 1, 2027?

MarketKALSHIactiveOther

Will the US cut the 50% aluminum tariff on Canada before Jan 1, 2027?

Part of: When will the US cut the 50% aluminum tariff on Canada?

NoNo Price

99¢

|

VolTotal Volume

$0.00

|

Outcomes

2

Ends

Jan 8, 2027

in 3 months

Trade on Kalshi

Will the US cut the 50% aluminum tariff on Canada before Jan 1, 2027?

Will the US cut the 50% aluminum tariff on Canada before Jan 1, 2027?

No

99¢

|

Vol

$0.00

|

Outcomes

2

Yes0.5¢

No99.5¢

Price History

Will the US cut the 50% aluminum tariff on Canada before Jan 1, 2027?

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Resolution Info

Market Stats

Resolution Countdown

88 Days Left

January 08, 2027 • 3:00 PM

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

When will the US cut the 50% aluminum tariff on Canada?

When will the US cut the 50% aluminum tariff on Canada?

Resolution Information

Status

Active

Expected Resolution

January 08, 2027

3:00 PM GMT+0

Official Sources

Markets are resolved using official government and institutional sources.

Accuracy

100%

Resolved

8,750

Avg Time

< 24 hours

Disputes

0%

Resolution Criteria

If the President signs a proclamation or executive order, or the Department of Commerce or U.S. Customs and Border Protection publishes a Federal Register notice, that reduces the generally applicable ad valorem Section 232 duty rate on aluminum articles (as defined in Proclamation 9704, as amended) that are products of Canada below 50% after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from the White House or the Federal Register qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity. The market resolves on signing or publication of the qualifying instrument, not on its effective date. Counts as Yes: A flat rate cut on all or any defined subset of covered Canadian aluminum articles, including reinstatement of the August 2026 framework at 25% A tariff-rate quota under which in-quota Canadian aluminum enters below 50% A country exemption or North American metals arrangement that lowers or removes the duty on Canadian aluminum Does NOT count: The July 20, 2026 primary-aluminum onshoring incentive (approved firms importing at half the rate) or any expansion of it Commerce's investment-commitment program allowing individual Canadian or Mexican producers to apply for a 25% rate Individual importer exclusions under the Commerce exclusion process Changes to derivative aluminum products only, with the base article rate unchanged Changes to US-content deductions or smelt-and-cast rules that leave the headline rate at 50% Court rulings enjoining or vacating the tariff Framework agreements, announcements, or press statements without a signed legal instrument This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Market Still Active

This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.