KKALSHI

Will the FDA approve cytisinicline for smoking cessation before Oct 1, 2026?

Yes1%

Vol$0.00

Outcomes2

1%

TradeTrade on Kalshi

MarketKALSHIresolved

Will the FDA approve cytisinicline for smoking cessation before Oct 1, 2026?

MarketKALSHIresolvedOther

Will the FDA approve cytisinicline for smoking cessation before Oct 1, 2026?

NoNo Price

100¢

|

VolTotal Volume

$0.00

|

Outcomes

2

Ends

Oct 8, 2026

about 4 hours ago

Trade on Kalshi

Will the FDA approve cytisinicline for smoking cessation before Oct 1, 2026?

Will the FDA approve cytisinicline for smoking cessation before Oct 1, 2026?

No

100¢

|

Vol

$0.00

|

Outcomes

2

Yes0.5¢

No99.5¢

Price History

Will the FDA approve cytisinicline for smoking cessation before Oct 1, 2026?

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Resolution Info

Market Stats

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

Resolution Information

Status

Resolved

Winning Outcome

no

Expected Resolution

October 08, 2026

2:00 PM GMT+0

Official Sources

Markets are resolved using official government and institutional sources.

Accuracy

100%

Resolved

8,750

Avg Time

< 24 hours

Disputes

0%

Resolution Criteria

If the FDA approves cytisinicline for smoking cessation for marketing before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. An approval is defined as: For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA) For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application The following constitute approvals that trigger the Payout Criterion: Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit) Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints) Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs The following do NOT constitute approvals: Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration FDA requests for additional information or studies Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval Approval only for export or for use outside the United States If the FDA issues a Complete Response Letter before Oct 1, 2026, the market will resolve to No unless the FDA subsequently approves cytisinicline for smoking cessation after addressing the CRL concerns and before Oct 1, 2026. If the FDA convenes an Advisory Committee that votes against approval but the FDA approves cytisinicline for smoking cessation anyway before Oct 1, 2026, the market will resolve to Yes. If cytisinicline for smoking cessation receives accelerated approval that is later withdrawn before Oct 1, 2026, the market will resolve based on whether the initial accelerated approval occurred after Issuance (Yes), regardless of the subsequent withdrawal. If the drug sponsor withdraws the application before FDA action and before Oct 1, 2026, the market will resolve to No immediately. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.