Resolution Criteria
If Nvidia H200 chips being delivered to mainland China is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This market resolves to Yes if any Source Agency confirms that one or more Nvidia H200 chips have been physically delivered to, received in, or imported into mainland China after Issuance and before Jan. 1, 2027.
For this market, “mainland China” means the People’s Republic of China excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan. Delivery to Hong Kong, Macau, or Taiwan does not qualify unless a Source Agency confirms that the Nvidia H200 chips were subsequently delivered to, received in, or imported into mainland China.
Regulatory approval, export licenses, purchase orders, contracts, reservations, customer allocations, payment, revenue-recognition statements, manufacturing, packaging, shipment preparation, or statements of intent do not qualify unless a Source Agency confirms physical delivery, receipt, or import into mainland China.
References to Nvidia “H200,” “H200 AI chips,” “H200 GPUs,” “H200 processors,” “H200 accelerators,” or “H200 AI accelerators” qualify, provided the Source Agency is referring to Nvidia H200 chips. References only to other Nvidia chips, including H20, H100, B200, B300, Blackwell, or China-specific modified chips, do not qualify unless the Source Agency also confirms delivery of Nvidia H200 chips.
A report that Nvidia H200 chips were delivered to an approved Chinese customer outside mainland China will not qualify, unless a Source Agency confirms that those chips were delivered to, received in, or imported into mainland China before Jan. 1, 2027. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
