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Will Steve Hilton outperform the Real Clear Polling average in the 2026 California governor election?

Yes0%

Vol$0.00

Outcomes2

0%

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Will Steve Hilton outperform the Real Clear Polling average in the 2026 California governor election?

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Will Steve Hilton outperform the Real Clear Polling average in the 2026 California governor election?

Part of: Will Steve Hilton outperform the polls?

NoNo Price

100¢

|

VolTotal Volume

$0.00

|

Outcomes

2

Ends

Nov 10, 2027

in about 1 year

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Will Steve Hilton outperform the Real Clear Polling average in the 2026 California governor election?

Will Steve Hilton outperform the Real Clear Polling average in the 2026 California governor election?

No

100¢

|

Vol

$0.00

|

Outcomes

2

Yes0.5¢

No99.5¢

Price History

Will Steve Hilton outperform the Real Clear Polling average in the 2026 California governor election?

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Resolution Info

Market Stats

Resolution Countdown

394 Days Left

November 10, 2027 • 3:00 PM

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

Will Steve Hilton outperform the polls?

Will Steve Hilton outperform the polls?

Resolution Information

Status

Active

Expected Resolution

November 10, 2027

3:00 PM GMT+0

Official Sources

Markets are resolved using official government and institutional sources.

Accuracy

100%

Resolved

8,750

Avg Time

< 24 hours

Disputes

0%

Resolution Criteria

If Steve Hilton's margin of victory outperforms that of the Real Clear Polling average at 10 AM ET on Nov 3, 2026 in the 2026 California governor election, then the market resolves to Yes. The market compares the official certified election result to the specified poll or polling average. "Outperform" means the actual result exceeds the poll figure; "underperform" means it falls short. Only certified results count - not preliminary tallies or projections. If using a poll range, the midpoint is used for comparison. Margins of error are not considered; any difference counts as over/underperformance. For the purposes of this market, the Real Clear Polling average for the 2026 California governor election at 10 AM ET on November 3, 2026 will be used to determine relative performance. For a winning candidate, the margin of victory is calculated as the difference between the candidate's vote share and their closest competitor's share. For a losing candidate, the margin of victory is calculated as the difference between the candidate’s vote share and the vote share of the candidate immediately ahead of them. Positive margins indicate the candidate won, negative margins indicate they lost, and zero indicates a tie. The polling margin is calculated the same way from the RCP Average figures, so a deficit in the average is a negative margin. Vote shares are percentages of all votes cast for the office. Write-in votes are aggregated as a single candidate if not individually reported. Only certified results are used for resolution. Recounts that change the certified margin before expiration use the most recent certified results. This market will close and expire early if the election results are certified.

Market Still Active

This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.