Resolution Criteria
If the U.S. Supreme Court overturns in full the February 8, 2024 judgment awarding E. Jean Carroll $83.3 million in compensatory and punitive damages in Donald J. Trump v. E. Jean Carroll, No. 26-141, or United States v. E. Jean Carroll, et al., No. 26-142, including any consolidation of those petitions before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. A ruling qualifies only if it leaves none of the February 8, 2024 judgment enforceable against Donald J. Trump.
The ruling must:
Be issued by the U.S. Supreme Court in Donald J. Trump v. E. Jean Carroll, No. 26-141, or United States v. E. Jean Carroll, et al., No. 26-142, including any consolidation of those petitions
Address the matter described by the specified judgment
Be issued through a written order, opinion, judgment, or decision
The following do NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion:
A grant or denial of certiorari, stay, briefing order, scheduling order, or other order that does not itself overturn the full judgment
A ruling on presidential immunity, Westfall Act substitution, or another procedural issue that does not require the full judgment to be vacated or set aside
A partial reversal, damages reduction, modification, GVR, or remand that does not itself require the full judgment to be vacated or set aside
A ruling in Carroll II, No. 25-573, or another separate Carroll proceeding
Oral rulings from the bench unless reduced to a written order
Tentative rulings that are not made final
Draft opinions that leak but are not officially issued
Settlements or voluntary dismissals
Administrative or scheduling orders
For clarity:
A ruling in either No. 26-141 or No. 26-142 counts if it matches the specified judgment
Per curiam opinions and summary orders count if they match the specified judgment
If multiple justices issue separate opinions, the majority or plurality opinion controls This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
