If the margin of victory for the first round winner in the 2026 Costa Rica Presidential election falls between 15% and 20%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by first round winner minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind first round winner if first round winner wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if first round winner loses. For raw votes: the total votes received by first round winner minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind first round winner if first round winner wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if first round winner loses. For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by first round winner minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if first round winner wins, or the electoral votes received by first round winner minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if first round winner does not. <p>Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If first round winner runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural first round winner will be summed.</p> <p>If first round winner wins the election, the margin will be positive. If first round winner loses the election, the margin will be negative. If first round winner ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where first round winner is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).</p> This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.