If the margin of victory for Maria Lazar in the 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election falls between 0% and 3%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Maria Lazar minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Maria Lazar if Maria Lazar wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Maria Lazar loses. For raw votes: the total votes received by Maria Lazar minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Maria Lazar if Maria Lazar wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Maria Lazar loses. For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Maria Lazar minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Maria Lazar wins, or the electoral votes received by Maria Lazar minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Maria Lazar does not. <p>Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Maria Lazar runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Maria Lazar will be summed.</p> <p>If Maria Lazar wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Maria Lazar loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Maria Lazar ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Maria Lazar is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).</p> This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.