Resolution Criteria
If the President announces a new trade deal before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. For the purposes of this Contract, an announcement must satisfy ALL of the following criteria:
Made through official channels including White House press conferences, official White House statements, presidential speeches, official presidential social media accounts, or official presidential appearances
Explicitly describes the arrangement as a "trade deal," "trade agreement," "trade memorandum," "trade pact," or uses substantially similar language indicating a formal trade arrangement
Involves at least one foreign country, territory, or international trade bloc
Preliminary agreements, frameworks, or agreements in principle do count as long as they are presented as a new trade-related agreement. It also includes modifications or re-negotiated versions of previous agreements. New arrangements include, but are not limited to:
Agreements with a country, territory, or trade bloc with which the United States does not currently have a comprehensive trade agreement
Agreements that cover trade sectors, industries, or product categories not previously covered by existing U.S. trade agreements with the same partner(s)
An agreement that establishes fundamentally different trade mechanisms, dispute resolution procedures, or regulatory frameworks compared to existing agreements with the same partner(s)
The following qualify as announcements that trigger the Payout Criterion:
A new bilateral trade agreement between the U.S. and another country
A new multilateral trade agreement involving the U.S. and multiple countries
Trade memoranda of understanding that establish new trade frameworks
Sector-specific trade deals (e.g., agricultural, technology, energy trade agreements)
Trade arrangements that are announced as "agreements in principle" or "framework agreements"
The following do NOT trigger the Payout Criterion:
Informal statements, leaks, or "sources say" reports without official presidential announcement
Announcements of trade negotiations beginning, trade talks being scheduled, or intentions to pursue trade deals
Tariff announcements, trade sanctions, or trade enforcement actions that do not establish new bilateral or multilateral trade frameworks
Congressional approval or ratification of previously announced deals
Announcements of trade visits, delegations, or diplomatic meetings without announcing an actual deal
Announcements regarding domestic trade policy changes that do not involve foreign partners This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
