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Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 2% and 4%?

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Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 2% and 4%?

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Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 2% and 4%?

Part of: NY-12 Democratic primary margin of victory?

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100¢

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VolTotal Volume

$0.00

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Outcomes

2

Ends

Jun 23, 2027

in 12 months

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Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 2% and 4%?

Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 2% and 4%?

No

100¢

|

Vol

$0.00

|

Outcomes

2

Yes0.4¢

No99.6¢

Price History

Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 2% and 4%?

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Resolution Info

Market Stats

Resolution Countdown

348 Days Left

June 23, 2027 • 2:00 PM

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

NY-12 Democratic primary margin of victory?

NY-12 Democratic primary margin of victory?

Resolution Information

Status

Active

Expected Resolution

June 23, 2027

2:00 PM GMT+0

Official Sources

Markets are resolved using official government and institutional sources.

Accuracy

100%

Resolved

8,750

Avg Time

< 24 hours

Disputes

0%

Resolution Criteria

If the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary falls within 2% to 4%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Micah Lasher minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Micah Lasher if Micah Lasher wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Micah Lasher loses. For raw votes: the total votes received by Micah Lasher minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Micah Lasher if Micah Lasher wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Micah Lasher loses. For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Micah Lasher minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Micah Lasher wins, or the electoral votes received by Micah Lasher minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Micah Lasher does not. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Micah Lasher runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Micah Lasher will be summed. If Micah Lasher wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Micah Lasher loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Micah Lasher ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Micah Lasher is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes). This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

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