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Will the margin of victory for Ed Markey in the 2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary be between 8% and 12%?

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Will the margin of victory for Ed Markey in the 2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary be between 8% and 12%?

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Will the margin of victory for Ed Markey in the 2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary be between 8% and 12%?

Part of: Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary margin of victory?

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100¢

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VolTotal Volume

$0.00

|

Outcomes

2

Ends

Sep 1, 2027

in about 1 year

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Will the margin of victory for Ed Markey in the 2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary be between 8% and 12%?

Will the margin of victory for Ed Markey in the 2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary be between 8% and 12%?

No

100¢

|

Vol

$0.00

|

Outcomes

2

Yes0.1¢

No99.9¢

Price History

Will the margin of victory for Ed Markey in the 2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary be between 8% and 12%?

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Resolution Info

Market Stats

Resolution Countdown

418 Days Left

September 01, 2027 • 2:00 PM

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary margin of victory?

Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary margin of victory?

Resolution Information

Status

Active

Expected Resolution

September 01, 2027

2:00 PM GMT+0

Official Sources

Markets are resolved using official government and institutional sources.

Accuracy

100%

Resolved

8,750

Avg Time

< 24 hours

Disputes

0%

Resolution Criteria

If the margin of victory for Ed Markey in the 2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary falls within 8% to 12%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Ed Markey minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ed Markey if Ed Markey wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Ed Markey loses. For raw votes: the total votes received by Ed Markey minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ed Markey if Ed Markey wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Ed Markey loses. For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Ed Markey minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Ed Markey wins, or the electoral votes received by Ed Markey minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Ed Markey does not. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Ed Markey runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Ed Markey will be summed. If Ed Markey wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Ed Markey loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Ed Markey ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Ed Markey is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes). This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

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