Resolution Criteria
If the US agrees to or announces a substantive federal action arising from its Smithsonian pressure campaign before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. For this market, a qualifying action is limited to one of the following:
A federal agency cancels, suspends, or refuses to renew an existing artifact loan to the Smithsonian.
A federal agency cancels, suspends, or refuses to renew an existing procurement-assistance arrangement with the Smithsonian.
A federal agency withholds, rescinds, suspends, or refuses a named discretionary grant to the Smithsonian, or imposes a new binding condition on that grant.
The Department of the Interior or National Park Service installs any of the temporary Smithsonian-related signs or exhibits on National Park Service property ordered by Executive Order 14416.
The President, Vice President, or another authorized executive-branch official takes a formal action that results in the removal, replacement, or resignation of the Smithsonian Secretary, or a change in voting control of the Smithsonian Board of Regents.
For the first three items, the federal action or announcement must expressly tie the decision to the dispute over Smithsonian leadership, governance, or museum content, or to Executive Order 14253, Executive Order 14416, the July 2026 White House report, or the Aug. 28, 2026 letter.
An unconditional official announcement also qualifies if the President, an authorized Cabinet official, or the responsible federal agency commits the United States to one of the listed actions, even if implementation will occur later. No other action qualifies.
A conditional threat; a review, report, recommendation, meeting request, or expression of dissatisfaction; proposed legislation; a routine Smithsonian decision; or an action completed before Issuance does NOT qualify. Executive Order 14253, Executive Order 14416 itself, the July 2026 White House report, and the Aug. 28, 2026 letter therefore do NOT qualify. This market will close and expire early if the event described in the Payout Criterion occurs.
