Resolution Criteria
If a coalition that includes Sweden Democrats make up the next elected ruling government of Sweden before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes.
A party is considered to be part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position (including junior ministers or equivalent executive roles, if applicable) in the new government. This evaluation shall occur at the first official, stable formation of the government (i.e., once the legislative process for forming a government is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances).
A party whose representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position — in Sweden, office as a minister (statsråd) — resolves YES
A party that only supports the government from outside it, under a confidence and supply or cooperation agreement of the kind the Sweden Democrats held under the 2022 Tidö Agreement, and holds no ministerial or cabinet-level position, does NOT resolve Yes
Political appointees in the Government Offices who are not ministers — state secretaries (statssekreterare), political advisers and coordination-office staff — are NOT ministerial or cabinet-level positions
Holding seats in the Riksdag is neither required nor sufficient. Swedish ministers do not have to be members of the Riksdag
The government evaluated is the first government formed following the Swedish general election of September 13, 2026. The transitional government that remains in office until that government is appointed is a caretaker government and does not count. Each minister is attributed to the party recorded for that minister by the Government Offices of Sweden; a minister with no party affiliation does not count toward any market.
If the Riksdag rejects the Speaker's proposals for Prime Minister four times and an extraordinary election is held before any government is formed, the first official, stable formation of a government following that extraordinary election governs resolution. If no government is formed before Jan 1, 2028, every market resolves NO.
Additional clarification(s):
Dissolution, absorption, or merger: If a party named in a market dissolves, is absorbed into, or merges with one or more other parties to form a new and distinct political party or organization prior to the relevant government formation, the originally named party shall not be considered part of government merely because its former politicians, officeholders, or assets have moved to, or been absorbed by, the new party. The resulting party is not treated as equivalent to the originally named party for purposes of this Contract, unless the circumstances instead satisfy the legal name change standard below, in which case that standard governs.
Legal name change: If a party named in a market undergoes a legal name change or rebranding but remains the same underlying legal political organization (i.e., the same legal registration, organizational continuity, and party structure persist, notwithstanding the new name), the renamed party continues to count as the same party named in that market. This market will close and expire early if the government is officially formed.
