If the United States announces a new free trade agreement, multilateral trade agreement, trade framework, or economic cooperation arrangement with Cuba before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Preliminary agreements, frameworks, or agreements in principle do count as long as they are presented as a new trade-related agreement. Cuba must also acknowledge the agreement. A mere declaration of intent to start negotiations or "explore a trade deal" is not sufficient. If the U.S. and Cuba are part of a multilateral trade agreement announced within the timeframe, it is included. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.