If Ken Paxton finishes in 3rd place in first round of the 2026 Texas Senate Republican Primary in Texas according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Ranking is determined by the specified counting method. For plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage. Write-in candidates achieving the specified rank resolve all named candidate markets to No unless a specific "Write-in" or "Other" option exists. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond expiration, all markets resolve to No. This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.