If the margin of victory for Jasmine Crockett in the first round of the 2026 Texas Senate Democratic primary falls between 3% and 6%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Jasmine Crockett minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Jasmine Crockett if Jasmine Crockett wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Jasmine Crockett loses. For raw votes: the total votes received by Jasmine Crockett minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Jasmine Crockett if Jasmine Crockett wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Jasmine Crockett loses. For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Jasmine Crockett minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Jasmine Crockett wins, or the electoral votes received by Jasmine Crockett minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Jasmine Crockett does not. <p>Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Jasmine Crockett runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Jasmine Crockett will be summed.</p> <p>If Jasmine Crockett wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Jasmine Crockett loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Jasmine Crockett ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Jasmine Crockett is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).</p> This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.