If the margin of victory for James Talarico in the first round of the 2026 Texas Senate Democratic primary falls between 15% and 18%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by James Talarico minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind James Talarico if James Talarico wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if James Talarico loses. For raw votes: the total votes received by James Talarico minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind James Talarico if James Talarico wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if James Talarico loses. For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by James Talarico minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if James Talarico wins, or the electoral votes received by James Talarico minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if James Talarico does not. <p>Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If James Talarico runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural James Talarico will be summed.</p> <p>If James Talarico wins the election, the margin will be positive. If James Talarico loses the election, the margin will be negative. If James Talarico ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where James Talarico is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).</p> This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.