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Will Wales announce an independence referendum before 2030?

Yes0%

Vol$0.00

Outcomes2

0%

TradeTrade on Kalshi

MarketKALSHIactive

Will Wales announce an independence referendum before 2030?

MarketKALSHIactiveOther

Will Wales announce an independence referendum before 2030?

Part of: Will Wales announce an independence referendum?

NoNo Price

100¢

|

VolTotal Volume

$0.00

|

Outcomes

2

Ends

Jan 8, 2030

in about 3 years

Trade on Kalshi

Will Wales announce an independence referendum before 2030?

Will Wales announce an independence referendum before 2030?

No

100¢

|

Vol

$0.00

|

Outcomes

2

Yes0.2¢

No99.8¢

Price History

Will Wales announce an independence referendum before 2030?

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Resolution Info

Market Stats

Resolution Countdown

1184 Days Left

January 08, 2030 • 3:00 PM

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

Will Wales announce an independence referendum?

Will Wales announce an independence referendum?

Resolution Information

Status

Active

Expected Resolution

January 08, 2030

3:00 PM GMT+0

Official Sources

Markets are resolved using official government and institutional sources.

Accuracy

100%

Resolved

8,750

Avg Time

< 24 hours

Disputes

0%

Resolution Criteria

If Wales agrees to or announces a formal decision by the UK Government, UK Parliament, or a legally authorized Welsh authority to hold a referendum on Welsh independence after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following: Formal signing of treaties Parliamentary approval with binding effect Official ratification Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to international bodies Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify. The following do NOT qualify: Preliminary discussions Conditional agreements contingent on circumstances Opposition party statements Leaked documents Think-tank recommendations General aspirations without specific commitment Draft legislation without approval Regional actions (unless specified) Retraction of previously announced commitments Confirmation must come from the UK Government, UK Parliament, or a Welsh authority legally empowered to commit to holding the referendum. A binding legal instrument qualifies only if it commits to the poll; merely granting a power to call one does not qualify. A polling date is not required, and voting may occur after January 1, 2030. Party pledges, non-binding Senedd motions, consultations, requests for permission, preparations, and general statements of intent do not qualify. Announcements made before issuance do not qualify. This market will close and expire early if the event described in the Payout Criterion occurs.

Market Still Active

This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.