94¢
$8.52K
2
Dec 31, 2026
in 6 months94¢
$8.52K
2
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
No historical data available
Price history will appear here when available
Markets are resolved using the UMA optimistic oracle system with community verification.
Learn moreThis market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Still Active
This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.
Alerts are stored locally in your browser
Get a browser notification when this market reaches its final outcome.
Notifications require browser permission and an open tab to receive