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Will 55% or more of Hay acreage be in D1-D4 drought this week?

Yes50%

Vol$0.00

Outcomes2

50%

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MarketPOLYMARKETactive

Will 55% or more of Hay acreage be in D1-D4 drought this week?

MarketPOLYMARKETactiveOther

Will 55% or more of Hay acreage be in D1-D4 drought this week?

Part of: Percent of Hay in drought - week of October 13, 2026

YesYes Price

50¢

|

VolTotal Volume

$0.00

|

Outcomes

2

Ends

Oct 15, 2026

in 3 days

Trade on Polymarket

Will 55% or more of Hay acreage be in D1-D4 drought this week?

Will 55% or more of Hay acreage be in D1-D4 drought this week?

Yes

50¢

|

Vol

$0.00

|

Outcomes

2

Yes50.0¢

No50.0¢

Price History

Will 55% or more of Hay acreage be in D1-D4 drought this week?

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Resolution Info

Market Stats

Resolution Countdown

3 Days Left

October 15, 2026 • 1:00 PM

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

Percent of Hay in drought - week of October 13, 2026

Percent of Hay in drought - week of October 13, 2026

Resolution Information

Status

Active

Expected Resolution

October 15, 2026

1:00 PM GMT+0

UMA Protocol

Markets are resolved using the UMA optimistic oracle system with community verification.

Accuracy

99.7%

Resolved

15,420

Avg Time

< 2 hours

Disputes

0.3%

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported D1-D4 drought percentage for hay acreage in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 13, 2026. Brackets: Under 15% / 15% to 24% / 25% to 34% / 35% to 44% / 45% to 54% / 55% or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". D1-D4 is the cumulative share of national hay acreage in moderate drought (D1) or worse, which is the "D1-D4" column the source publishes. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. Published value with decimals will be rounded to the nearest whole number using standard rounding conventions (0.5 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. If no value for the week of October 13, 2026 is published by October 22, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published D1-D4 value for hay acreage with an effective date on or before October 13, 2026. The resolution source for this market is the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Livestock and Forage Data Table, maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with USDA, at https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2.

Market Still Active

This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.