Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any one of the specified individuals formally ceases to hold their specified office by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The specified individuals and their respective offices are: Cyril Ramaphosa (President of South Africa), Friedrich Merz (Federal Chancellor of Germany), Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud (King of Saudi Arabia), Javier Milei (President of Argentina), Anthony Albanese (Prime Minister of Australia), Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (President of Brazil), Mark Carney (Prime Minister of Canada), Xi Jinping (President of China), Lee Jae-myung (President of South Korea), Donald Trump (President of the United States), Emmanuel Macron (President of France), Narendra Modi (Prime Minister of India), Sanae Takaichi (Prime Minister of Japan), Prabowo Subianto (President of Indonesia), Giorgia Meloni (President of the Council of Ministers of Italy), Claudia Sheinbaum (President of Mexico), Andy Burnham (Prime Minister of the United Kingdom), Vladimir Putin (President of Russia), Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (President of Turkey), and Ursula von der Leyen (President of the European Commission, European Union). Departure from any other office held by a specified individual will not qualify.
The individual must formally cease to hold the specified office in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, dismissal, or other means all qualify.
Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified office do not qualify. If an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information by the relevant individual and the respective country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
