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Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?

Yes 17.0%

Vol$1.86M

SnapshotOct 23, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC

Yes 17.0%

TradeTrade on Polymarket

Event

MarketPOLYMARKETactive

MarketPOLYMARKETactivePolitics

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?

Part of: Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

YesYes Price

17.0¢

VolTotal Volume

$1.86M

Outcomes

Ends

Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC

Trade on Polymarket

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?

Yes

17.0¢

Vol

$1.86M

Outcomes

Trade

Yes17.0¢

No83.0¢

Outcome

Yes quoted price: 17.0%. Snapshot Oct 23, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. History may have a different observation time.

Price History

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? · Yes

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Rules and settlement

Listed close: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC. Settlement follows the provider's contract terms and may occur later.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

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Resolution Info