PPOLYMARKET

Canada recession before 2027?

Yes100%+69.2%

Vol$122.18K

Outcomes2

100%

TradeTrade on Polymarket

MarketPOLYMARKETclosed

Canada recession before 2027?

MarketPOLYMARKETclosedPolitics

Canada recession before 2027?

YesYes Price

100¢

|

VolTotal Volume

$122.18K

|

Outcomes

2

Ends

Dec 31, 2026

in 6 months

Trade on Polymarket

Canada recession before 2027?

Canada recession before 2027?

Yes

100¢

|

Vol

$122.18K

|

Outcomes

2

Yes100.0¢

No0.0¢

Price History

Canada recession before 2027?

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Resolution Info

Market Stats

Resolution Countdown

168 Days Left

December 31, 2026 • 12:00 AM

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

Resolution Information

Status

Closed

Expected Resolution

December 31, 2026

12:00 AM GMT+0

UMA Protocol

Markets are resolved using the UMA optimistic oracle system with community verification.

Accuracy

99.7%

Resolved

15,420

Avg Time

< 2 hours

Disputes

0.3%

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met: 1. The C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council publicly announces that a recession has occurred in Canada, at any point before 2027, with the announcement made by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian Real GDP (expenditure-based), chained (2017) dollars GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by Statistics Canada (StatCan). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that any two consecutive, concurrent vintages indicating negative GDP growth will qualify, regardless of prior or later revisions. For example, if upon release, the initial estimate for Q2 2026 was negative, and Q1 2026's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative, this market will stay open until Statistics Canada publishes the initial estimate for Q4 2026, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council declares a recession by then. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council and Statistics Canada’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian real GDP from previous quarters as released by Statistics Canada (e.g., as reported in the line “Gross domestic product at market prices” in Table 3 of the quarterly GDP release: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250829/t003a-eng.htm)