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Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026?

Yes 98.0%

Vol$54.5K

SnapshotOct 27, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC

Yes 98.0%

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Event

MarketPOLYMARKETactive

MarketPOLYMARKETactiveClimate

Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026?

Part of: When will the Danube River return to normal levels?

YesYes Price

98.0¢

VolTotal Volume

$54.5K

Outcomes

Ends

Nov 2, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC

Trade on Polymarket

Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026?

Yes

98.0¢

Vol

$54.5K

Outcomes

Trade

Yes98.0¢

No2.0¢

Outcome

Yes quoted price: 98.0%. Snapshot Oct 27, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC. History may have a different observation time.

Price History

Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026? · Yes

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Rules and settlement

Listed close: Nov 2, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC. Settlement follows the provider's contract terms and may occur later.

This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market. "Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution. The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period. The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

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Resolution Info