When will the Danube River return to normal levels?
PM $161.2K
1
2
When will the Danube River return to normal levels?
PM $161.2K
1
2
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Does not return by November 1, 2026 at 97.7%.
Polymarket
- Does not return by November 1, 202697.7%
- October 1 - 31, 20262.6%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $161.2K
Reported volume · provider units
2
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market. "Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution. The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period. The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-21T15:00:05.980Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event asks when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters. The rules describe this as the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level threshold and the definition of "normal levels" for this market [1]. A single qualifying reading is enough: "transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period" [1]. The primary source is DanubeHIS. If it is unavailable, the market "may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting" [1].
The two listed markets use different wording. One asks whether the river will "fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026." The other asks whether it will "return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026" [1]. The rules say the "Does not return by November 1, 2026" outcome resolves "Yes" if no qualifying reading occurs "on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-02T04:59:00.000Z, which does not match that rule cutoff. Readers should rely on the rule text and check the provider's listing for any changes.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-21T15:00:05.980Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-21T16:05:52.977Z [1]. These figures describe that snapshot only. They are not live quotes. In the first market, Yes is 0.8645 and No is 0.1355. In the second, Yes is 0.135 and No is 0.865 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Because the contracts have different wording and windows, their prices should not be combined or treated as an arbitrage opportunity. Coverage lists two of two markets from this event, with no partial sample flagged [1]. This covers only the saved markets for this event and does not establish that every possible outcome is listed.
What remains uncertain
The supplied evidence does not explain why prices sit where they do. It contains no gauge readings, trader counts, or volume data. Whether the river reaches 93 centimeters before the cutoff remains unresolved. The gap between the stated October 31 cutoff and the listed November 2 end time, along with the differing market wording, means the contract rules should guide interpretation.
References
- Polymarket: When will the Danube River return to normal levels?. Provider data observed 2026-10-21T15:00:05.980Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 21, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia contract asks when the Danube River will return to what the market calls normal levels. The market defines normal as a reading of at least 93 centimeters at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027). That threshold is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level threshold for Budapest, which the contract describes as the minimum acceptable navigation level [1]. The primary resolution source is DanubeHIS, which publishes readings for that station, and the contract says that if DanubeHIS is unavailable the market may resolve on a consensus of credible reporting [1]. The contract resolves on the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start. A single qualifying reading is enough, and transient spikes count because the level does not need to stay at or above the threshold for any period [1]. The saved market is a set of time-bracket questions. One asks whether the river will fail to return to normal by November 1, 2026, and resolves Yes if no qualifying reading is recorded at the Budapest gauge on or before October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after that cutoff do not affect resolution [1]. A second question asks whether the return will occur between October 1 and October 31, 2026 [1]. The contract text also lists an end time of November 2, 2026 at 04:59 UTC, which is separate from the October 31 cutoff described in the rules [1]. The saved snapshot was observed at 15:00 UTC on October 21, 2026, and the market was active at that time [1]. The evidence does not include the river's gauge readings at any time, so it does not show where the water level stands now or whether it has been rising.
Historical Context
The supplied background is limited. A Wikipedia article on the 2013 European floods describes extreme flooding in Central Europe after heavy rain in late May and early June 2013, with the flood crest moving down the Elbe and Danube drainage basins and tributaries [2]. That article describes a past event and does not provide information about water levels at the Budapest gauge in 2026.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether a specific river gauge reading reaches a threshold within a set window. It is tied to navigation, since the 93 centimeter figure is described as the minimum acceptable navigation level for Budapest [1]. The resolution rule is narrow: it depends on one gauge, one threshold, one data provider, and a defined cutoff, so the outcome turns on the exact wording of those rules rather than on general descriptions of river conditions [1]. The price figures in the saved snapshot are provider prices at a single observation time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. In the snapshot, the Yes price on the not-returning question was 0.8645 and the Yes price on the October return question was 0.135 [1]. Trading volume is not included in this explanation and should not be read as a measure of liquidity or the number of participants.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-21 at 15:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What water level counts as a return to normal for this contract?
The contract treats a reading of 93 centimeters or higher at the Budapest gauge, station HU442027, as a return to normal levels. It describes this as the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level threshold for Budapest [1].
Does the river need to stay above 93 centimeters for the contract to resolve?
No. The contract states that a single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient, that transient spikes count, and that the level does not need to be sustained for any period [1].
Which source determines the outcome?
The primary resolution source is DanubeHIS. If DanubeHIS is unavailable, the contract says the market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting [1].
Do readings after October 31, 2026 count?
According to the contract, readings after the October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC cutoff are not considered for the not-returning question, and a return on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect that resolution [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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